One of 147: Icahn Is 100% of the Tracked CVR Energy Stake — Unchanged in Q2 While the Full Market Added 6.1%

GetCoattail Research — The Filing Tape #184. CVR Energy through six filing lenses, as of the latest filings. Past patterns are not a promise of future results. For education only — not investment advice.

The Hype

CVR Energy sits fourth on a list that is itself the hype. Zacks' "Best Stocks to Buy Now" page, updated October 24, 2026, lists CVR Energy (CVI) fourth — after Suncor Energy, Par Pacific, and APA, the subjects of the three previous Filing Tapes — at $58.16, with a 12-week price change of +52.73%, a forward PE of 13.83, projected one-year EPS growth of 444.67% and projected sales growth of 24.33% (Zacks). The detail section carries a Strong Buy (1) badge. Its case rests on the operating business: strategically located petroleum refineries alongside nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing assets, initiatives to optimise crude sourcing and increase jet fuel production, converting Wynnewood's renewable diesel unit to hydrocarbon processing, and expanding fertilizer production with diversified feedstocks. Third-quarter results are due November 4, 2026.

The price tape behind the attention is a round trip and then a breakout. CVI closed 2025 at $25.44, rose to $33.65 by March 31, 2026, then fell 18.2% in Q2 to $27.54, recovered to $50.99 by September 30, and closed the price file on October 2 at $54.83 — 99.1% above its June 30 close and 115.5% above its 2025 year-end close. The daily refresh puts the October 23 close at $58.16 — the same figure as the Zacks list line — 6.1% above the October 2 close and 111.2% above June 30. The question the filings let us ask: while the price fell in Q2 and then doubled from its June low, what did the tracked holders, the broad institutional market, and the company's own insiders actually do — and is there anyone in the tracked register besides one man?

The Tape

Chart: CVR Energy through six filing lenses — who is actually there?

Superinvestors. The tracked register for CVI is not top-heavy. It is one person. Carl Icahn's Icahn Capital Management holds 71,201,875 shares — $1,960,899,637 reported, 23.73% of its portfolio — and it is 100.0% of the tracked cohort. There is no second holder. The position did not move in Q2: the verified change is 0.0%, from 71,201,875 shares in Q1 to 71,201,875 in Q2, a difference of exactly zero shares. The label recomputes exactly from paired register rows (Q2 accession 0001539497-26-002243 against Q1 accession 0001539497-26-001469, 12-CUSIP overlap, unique pairing), and both register reconciliations close with residual zero — the Q1 register holds exactly this one row, and the Q2 register exactly this one row. There are no new holders, no exits, and no September early filer holding CVI. The June implied price ($27.54) matches the June 30 close ($27.54) exactly. The cohort is 68.7% of the full market's reported CVI shares — not because the cohort is large, but because Icahn alone is that large. One holder, unchanged, is the whole tracked story.

All institutions. The broad market added shares while the tracked holder stood still, but the addition is modest next to Icahn's block. Filers rose by 12 to 223, of which 221 are long, and reported shares rose 6.1% (+5,959,172 shares to 103,673,859). Reported value fell 13.66% to $2.89 billion — not because institutions sold, but because the June 30 close ($27.54) sits below the March 31 close ($33.65), and value carries that price fall. Underneath, 216 filers entered and 204 exited, net +12. Strip Icahn's 71,201,875 shares out of the full-market total and the remaining institutions hold about 32.5 million shares — so the broad market's Q2 addition (+5.96 million shares) is real, but it is less than a tenth of the single tracked position it sits beside. The tracked holding did not move; the broad market moved a little.

Insiders. This lens is quiet in a stronger sense than usual: the recent window contains no filings at all. In the 90 days to October 2, 2026, insiders filed 0 forms — so there are 0 buys and 0 sells because there is nothing to count. Over one year: 9 filings, 3 buys, 0 sells, 783,404 shares, $16,445,044.48, from a single buyer. Across the whole corpus: 22 filings, 31 buys, 0 sells — not one open-market sale appears anywhere in the corpus. Every buy in every window is from the same buyer: Carl C. Icahn, flagged as a non-officer in these filings, with zero officer buys in any window. The one-year buys are a single filing, filed February 24, 2026: transaction February 20, 263,452 shares at $20.78; transaction February 23, 244,940 shares at $20.75; transaction February 24, 275,012 shares at $21.41. The one-year implied buy price ($20.99) sits inside the one-year price range, so the buy values are consistent with the price tape rather than an artefact of bad prints. The cross-lens arithmetic closes neatly: the April 15, 2025 13D reports 70,125,482 shares and the February 24, 2026 13D reports 71,201,875, an increase of 1,076,393 shares — exactly the Form 4 buys dated after April 15, 2025 (292,989 shares from April 16 to May 1, 2025, plus these 783,404). One disclosed gap: the site's insider aggregate file has no CVI row, so there is no site-aggregate cross-check for this ticker — the bucket-versus-scan agreement is the check that stands, and the missing site row is reported here rather than hidden.

Congress. Nothing to report, and the nothing is checked rather than assumed. CVI has no row in any of the four congressional files within their stated windows — no combined row, no House row, no Senate row, and no member row — as of October 3, 2026. That is a zero-activity-in-window finding, not a claim that no member ever traded the stock outside those windows.

13D/G. The control register is an activist register with one name on it. It holds 5 filings, 4 amendments to Schedule 13D and 1 amendment to Schedule 13G, and no initial filing. The latest filing, dated February 24, 2026, is an amendment at the February 24, 2026 event date: Icahn Enterprises Holdings L.P., Icahn Enterprises G.P. Inc., and Carl C. Icahn jointly report 71,201,875 shares at 70.8% — the same share count as the Q1 and Q2 13F holding, exactly. The three Icahn names are one economic holder reported jointly, and they are not summed: the register's cross-date share total (838,901,305) counts each Icahn filing three times and sums rows from different dates, so it is never quoted here as an economic figure. The Icahn path climbs steadily: 67.2% (event February 21, 2025; 67,570,593 shares) → 68.7% (event April 3, 2025; 69,107,178) → 69.8% (event April 15, 2025; 70,125,482) → 70.8% (event February 24, 2026; 71,201,875). The only non-Icahn filing is passive: BlackRock, Inc., 4,885,921 shares at 4.9% (event June 30, 2025, filed July 16, 2025). There is no second activist, no rival block, and no passive holder above 5% in this register.

Short interest. The bear trade is growing into the rebound, not shrinking with it. FINRA short interest stood at 5,804,898 shares at September 15, 2026, with 4.72 days to cover and 5.77% of the 100,530,599 shares outstanding (a July 24, 2026 count). That is 22.4% above June 30 (4,742,387), 12.2% above the year-ago figure (5,172,749), and 30.3% below the series peak of 8,329,872 shares at December 29, 2023. The last five settlements trace the climb with one dip: 5,260,231 (July 15), 5,447,876 (July 31), 5,903,668 (August 14), 5,353,732 (August 31), 5,804,898 (September 15) — the latest tick is a +8.43% uptick after a fall. The series is calm in step terms — across 137 settlements there is not a single move over 2× or under 0.5×. One row carries a revision flag (June 15, 2021); no row carries a stock-split flag.

Chart: CVI short interest — 137 FINRA settlements, January 2021 to September 2026.

Fundamentals context. The fundamentals record is complete on the fields quoted here: shares outstanding are 100,530,599 as of July 24, 2026, revenue is $7,162,000,000, net income is $27,000,000 and assets are $3,706,000,000, all for FY2025. The recorded market capitalisation is $5,772,466,810.50, on the record's own price_close ($57.42 as of October 6, 2026), not the October 23 close.

The Gap

The hype and the filing tape disagree about what kind of story this is. The October story is a list name up 52.73% in 12 weeks with a Strong Buy badge, a refining-and-fertilizer growth story, and a price 111.2% above its June close. The filings show that the entire tracked superinvestor presence is one holder who did not move in Q2, and that the same holder's control position — 70.8% of shares outstanding, confirmed by both the 13D and the 13F at the identical share count — is the dominant fact about this stock's ownership. The company's own insiders, meanwhile, have not filed a single form in the last 90 days, and their only purchases in the last year are Icahn's own February 2026 buys. But the broad institutional market added 6.1% in shares in Q2, and the short position grew 22.4% from June into September — the rebound's filing verdict rests on a small broad-market addition and a growing short position, beside a control holder who stood still. With Congress silent in-window and the 13D/G register holding one activist and one passive holder, there is no second tracked voice in this tape at all.

What Would Change the Picture

Nothing above is a recommendation. It is a record. What would change it:

• 1. Q3 13F season (filings due by November 16, 2026). Watch whether Icahn moves from its 71,201,875-share position at all, and whether any tracked manager opens a first CVI position — the register starts Q3 from one holder, so any entry is measurable against that base.
• 2. A first insider filing after the quiet 90 days. Any Form 4 filing after October 2, 2026 would end the silence that ran through the 90 days to October 2, 2026; a first sale in the corpus would end a run that currently has exactly zero, across all 22 filings.
• 3. A new 13D or 13G. An Icahn move from 70.8%, a BlackRock move from 4.9%, or any second activist filing would replace the current one-activist picture.
• 4. Short-interest direction. A rebuild back above the series peak of 8,329,872 — or a fall back toward the June 30 level of 4,742,387 — would each tell a different story about the growing bear position.
• 5. Filings after the November 4 results. The third-quarter report will show up in the next round of filings before it shows up anywhere else.

As-of & Limits

Methodology & disclaimer: 13F holdings are long common shares unless stated; reported values include option rows for the all-institutions lens by definition. Short interest is FINRA twice-monthly settlements. Trading costs and taxes are not reflected in any figure. Past patterns are not a promise of future results. For education only — not investment advice.

This article describes filings and market data for education. It is not investment advice. Data: SEC EDGAR 13F (as of June 30, 2026, filed within 45 days), Form 4 corpus checked through October 2, 2026 (22 filings for issuer CIK 1376139), House/Senate disclosures through October 3, 2026, SC 13D/G parsed register through February 24, 2026, FINRA short interest at September 15, 2026 settlement. 13F covers long positions of $100M+ managers only and is always a lagging picture. Trading costs and taxes are not reflected.

Related research: Three of 147: Ariel Is 72.9% of the Tracked APA Stake — and the Cohort Cut 12.8% While the Full Market Added 17.99% · One of 147: Par Pacific's Only Tracked Holder Cut 27.4% in Q2 — While the Full Market Added Shares · Track the tape on CVI's stock page and the 13F filing season hub.

Revision history: v1.0 — October 25, 2026. Initial publication. Signals and lens aggregates: cvi_lens_data.csv. Short-interest series: cvi_short_interest_series.csv.

Past patterns are not a promise of future results. For education only — not investment advice.