Every signal this site publishes is scored against the S&P 500 and the scoreboard is public — losing quarters included. Returns use dividend-adjusted closes; trading costs and taxes are not reflected. How everything is measured: Methodology.
| Signal | Signals (n) | Win rate | Avg | Median | SPY | Excess |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavy accumulation — 3+ tracked funds increased together In that quarter, 3 or more tracked funds increased their share count in the same stock by 20% or more. | 2,724 | 56.1% | +2.7% | +1.8% | +3.2% | -0.5% |
| Share count tripled (3x) A tracked fund at least tripled its share count, with the signal-quarter-end position value at $5M or more. | 598 | 54.9% | +1.4% | +1.2% | +3.1% | -1.8% |
| Heavy exit — 3+ tracked funds sold out together In that quarter, 3 or more tracked funds sold their entire position in the same stock. Sells are noisier than buys and need care in interpretation. | 130 | 51.5% | -0.4% | +1.5% | +4.2% | -4.6% |
Entry = the close on the first trading day after the quarter's filing deadline (the deadline is 45 days after quarter-end) — the first close at which every filing behind the signal was public; exit = the same rule one quarter later. Measured across 19 signal quarters (2021Q3 – 2026Q1), computed Oct 4, 2026.
Sensitivity: entering at the filing deadline\u2019s own close instead — the convention used before Oct 2026 — gives excess returns of S1 -0.5% · S2 -1.6% · S3 -3.9%. The change of basis moves no conclusion; the entry rule was changed because an audit of EDGAR acceptance timestamps found about 31% of the filings behind these signals were accepted only after the deadline day\u2019s close, so that close was not always tradeable on public information.
Each quarter we rank the most-bought stocks (the BEST list). The Top 30, equal-weighted, are then scored over the following quarter under two entry bases: at the filing deadline (the first day the list was public) and at quarter-end. n = how many of the 30 could be measured.
| Quarter | n scored | Filed-entry avg | SPY | Excess | Quarter-end avg | SPY | Excess | Hit rate* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 | 30 / 30 | -3.3% | -1.5% | -1.7% | +3.9% | +2.4% | +1.5% | 47% |
| 2026 Q1 | 30 / 30 | -1.1% | +1.3% | -2.4% | +11.3% | +15.1% | -3.9% | 80% |
| 2025 Q4 | 30 / 30 | -4.3% | -4.3% | +0.0% | -4.8% | -4.4% | -0.4% | 23% |
| 2025 Q3 | 30 / 30 | +4.0% | +1.8% | +2.2% | +3.1% | +2.7% | +0.5% | 70% |
| 2025 Q2 | 30 / 30 | +3.5% | +3.6% | -0.1% | +5.3% | +8.1% | -2.8% | 67% |
| 2025 Q1 | 30 / 30 | +6.7% | +5.0% | +1.8% | +10.8% | +10.8% | -0.0% | 70% |
| 2024 Q4 | 30 / 30 | -6.1% | -8.0% | +1.9% | -0.6% | -4.3% | +3.6% | 43% |
| 2024 Q3 | 30 / 30 | -2.1% | -0.9% | -1.2% | +5.2% | +2.5% | +2.7% | 60% |
| 2024 Q2 | 30 / 30 | +6.1% | +5.8% | +0.2% | +7.1% | +5.8% | +1.4% | 70% |
| 2024 Q1 | 30 / 30 | +1.1% | +3.1% | -1.9% | +3.8% | +4.4% | -0.6% | 67% |
| 2023 Q4 | 30 / 30 | +6.0% | +5.2% | +0.7% | +12.4% | +10.4% | +2.0% | 83% |
| 2023 Q3 | 30 / 30 | +6.5% | +6.3% | +0.2% | +10.6% | +11.6% | -1.0% | 87% |
| 2023 Q2 | 30 / 30 | -5.5% | -4.3% | -1.3% | -2.4% | -3.2% | +0.8% | 43% |
| 2023 Q1 | 30 / 30 | +8.7% | +7.7% | +0.9% | +9.8% | +8.7% | +1.1% | 83% |
| 2022 Q4 | 30 / 30 | -2.3% | -0.4% | -1.9% | +10.2% | +7.5% | +2.7% | 73% |
| 2022 Q3 | 30 / 30 | -2.9% | -2.8% | -0.1% | +6.9% | +7.6% | -0.7% | 73% |
| 2022 Q2 | 30 / 30 | -18.4% | -16.4% | -2.1% | -7.3% | -4.9% | -2.4% | 17% |
| 2022 Q1 | 30 / 30 | -3.7% | -5.3% | +1.6% | -16.4% | -16.1% | -0.3% | 17% |
| 2021 Q4 | 30 / 30 | -0.9% | +3.2% | -4.1% | -4.2% | -4.6% | +0.4% | 30% |
| 2021 Q3 | 30 / 30 | -1.9% | +2.0% | -3.9% | +5.5% | +11.1% | -5.6% | 70% |
Filed-entry basis: 8 of 20 scored quarters beat SPY. *Hit rate uses the quarter-end basis.
| Quarter | n scored | Filed-entry avg | SPY | Excess | Quarter-end avg | SPY | Excess | Hit rate* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 | 30 / 30 | -12.5% | -1.5% | -11.0% | -5.1% | +2.4% | -7.5% | 23% |
| 2026 Q1 | 30 / 30 | +15.6% | +1.3% | +14.3% | +23.8% | +15.1% | +8.7% | 80% |
| 2025 Q4 | 30 / 30 | +1.4% | -4.3% | +5.8% | +2.0% | -4.4% | +6.4% | 57% |
| 2025 Q3 | 30 / 30 | +8.6% | +1.8% | +6.8% | +4.9% | +2.7% | +2.2% | 63% |
| 2025 Q2 | 30 / 30 | +1.9% | +3.6% | -1.7% | +10.3% | +8.1% | +2.2% | 50% |
| 2025 Q1 | 30 / 30 | +3.7% | +5.0% | -1.2% | +4.5% | +10.8% | -6.3% | 47% |
| 2024 Q4 | 29 / 30 | -8.5% | -8.0% | -0.5% | -0.2% | -4.3% | +4.1% | 45% |
| 2024 Q3 | 30 / 30 | +0.7% | -0.9% | +1.6% | +11.0% | +2.5% | +8.5% | 67% |
| 2024 Q2 | 30 / 30 | +1.4% | +5.8% | -4.4% | +4.2% | +5.8% | -1.6% | 57% |
| 2024 Q1 | 29 / 30 | +0.4% | +3.1% | -2.6% | +1.0% | +4.4% | -3.4% | 45% |
| 2023 Q4 | 30 / 30 | +8.9% | +5.2% | +3.7% | +4.7% | +10.4% | -5.7% | 47% |
| 2023 Q3 | 30 / 30 | +12.8% | +6.3% | +6.4% | +5.5% | +11.6% | -6.1% | 60% |
| 2023 Q2 | 30 / 30 | -9.2% | -4.3% | -5.0% | -2.2% | -3.2% | +1.0% | 53% |
| 2023 Q1 | 30 / 30 | +7.4% | +7.7% | -0.3% | +7.8% | +8.7% | -0.9% | 70% |
| 2022 Q4 | 30 / 30 | -7.3% | -0.4% | -6.9% | +9.7% | +7.5% | +2.2% | 57% |
| 2022 Q3 | 30 / 30 | -4.7% | -2.8% | -2.0% | +10.9% | +7.6% | +3.4% | 63% |
| 2022 Q2 | 30 / 30 | -21.1% | -16.4% | -4.7% | +3.2% | -4.9% | +8.1% | 43% |
| 2022 Q1 | 30 / 30 | -6.5% | -5.3% | -1.2% | -19.4% | -16.1% | -3.3% | 7% |
| 2021 Q4 | 30 / 30 | +15.1% | +3.2% | +11.9% | +3.4% | -4.6% | +8.0% | 47% |
| 2021 Q3 | 30 / 30 | -6.3% | +2.0% | -8.3% | -1.7% | +11.1% | -12.8% | 50% |
Filed-entry basis: 7 of 20 scored quarters beat SPY. *Hit rate uses the quarter-end basis.
| Quarter | n scored | Filed-entry avg | SPY | Excess | Quarter-end avg | SPY | Excess | Hit rate* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 | 30 / 30 | -1.9% | -1.5% | -0.4% | -1.3% | +2.4% | -3.7% | 37% |
| 2026 Q1 | 30 / 30 | +7.7% | +1.3% | +6.4% | +31.3% | +15.1% | +16.2% | 83% |
| 2025 Q4 | 30 / 30 | -4.1% | -4.3% | +0.2% | -7.9% | -4.4% | -3.5% | 27% |
| 2025 Q3 | 30 / 30 | +1.8% | +1.8% | -0.0% | +2.4% | +2.7% | -0.3% | 43% |
| 2025 Q2 | 30 / 30 | +4.9% | +3.6% | +1.3% | +8.2% | +8.1% | +0.1% | 70% |
| 2025 Q1 | 30 / 30 | +5.2% | +5.0% | +0.2% | +16.0% | +10.8% | +5.2% | 70% |
| 2024 Q4 | 30 / 30 | -8.5% | -8.0% | -0.5% | -3.1% | -4.3% | +1.1% | 43% |
| 2024 Q3 | 30 / 30 | -2.4% | -0.9% | -1.5% | -1.1% | +2.5% | -3.6% | 33% |
| 2024 Q2 | 30 / 30 | +7.6% | +5.8% | +1.7% | +11.1% | +5.8% | +5.3% | 80% |
| 2024 Q1 | 29 / 30 | +1.6% | +3.1% | -1.5% | +5.3% | +4.4% | +1.0% | 66% |
| 2023 Q4 | 29 / 30 | +6.1% | +5.2% | +0.8% | +12.8% | +10.4% | +2.5% | 83% |
| 2023 Q3 | 30 / 30 | +6.9% | +6.3% | +0.5% | +10.1% | +11.6% | -1.6% | 90% |
| 2023 Q2 | 29 / 30 | -3.1% | -4.3% | +1.2% | -0.8% | -3.2% | +2.4% | 48% |
| 2023 Q1 | 30 / 30 | +9.4% | +7.7% | +1.7% | +10.7% | +8.7% | +2.1% | 77% |
| 2022 Q4 | 28 / 30 | +0.3% | -0.4% | +0.7% | +13.3% | +7.5% | +5.9% | 71% |
| 2022 Q3 | 30 / 30 | -3.0% | -2.8% | -0.3% | +8.8% | +7.6% | +1.2% | 80% |
| 2022 Q2 | 24 / 30 | -16.5% | -16.4% | -0.2% | -8.2% | -4.9% | -3.2% | 29% |
| 2022 Q1 | 29 / 30 | -5.4% | -5.3% | -0.1% | -15.7% | -16.1% | +0.4% | 21% |
| 2021 Q4 | 28 / 30 | -0.5% | +3.2% | -3.7% | -6.9% | -4.6% | -2.2% | 36% |
| 2021 Q3 | 29 / 30 | +1.7% | +2.0% | -0.3% | +13.7% | +11.1% | +2.7% | 72% |
Filed-entry basis: 10 of 20 scored quarters beat SPY. *Hit rate uses the quarter-end basis.
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