GetCoattail Research — The Filing Tape #196. Thermo Fisher Scientific through six filing lenses, as of the latest filings. Past patterns are not a promise of future results. For education only — not investment advice.
The Hype
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) sits on TipRanks' "Trending Stocks by Analyst" list, ranked by recent analyst activity, with values dated October 23, 2026. The names ranked ahead of it on that page — Meta Platforms, Lam Research, Waste Connections, Spotify, United Rentals, Western Digital, and Procter & Gamble — have all been covered in this series already, which makes Thermo Fisher the first uncovered name on the list. This package cites no other news event for Thermo Fisher: the attention claim rests on that trending listing plus the measured price tape, and nothing else.
The price tape behind the attention is a recovery, not a steady climb. TMO closed 2025 at $579.45, fell to $491.53 by March 31, 2026, then rose 2.0% in Q2 to $501.36 by June 30, jumped to $675.05 by September 30, and closed the price file on October 2 at $654.80 — 30.6% above its June 30 close and 13.0% above its 2025 year-end close. The daily refresh (cross-source) puts the October 23 close at $673.82 — 2.9% above the October 2 close, 34.4% above June 30, and 16.3% above the 2025 year-end close. The question the filings let us ask: while the price did that, what did the tracked holders, the broad market, the company's own insiders, and the passive register actually do?
The Tape
| Lens | As of | What the filings show | Direction vs prior period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Superinvestors (13F) | Jun 30, 2026 | 22 of 147 tracked managers hold; 14,210,756 shares ($7.12B reported). Dodge & Cox is 21.5%. | Verified cohort shares +36.8%; 2 new holders, 2 exits |
| All institutions (13F) | Jun 30, 2026 | 2,619 filers hold 333,738,715 shares ($164.11B reported). | Shares +12.12%; filers +47; reported value +15.36% |
| Insiders (Form 4) | Oct 2, 2026 | 0 buys, 93 sells in 90 days ($61.6M sold); 2 buys totalling 20 shares across the whole corpus. | No buys in 90 days or in the year; sells in every window |
| Congress | Oct 3, 2026 | 2 House sales, 0 buys; no Senate row. | Two small-range sales, no buys |
| 13D/G | Apr 30, 2026 | All passive: 1 SC 13G + 1 SC 13G/A; Vanguard at 7.53%. | No activist filing in the parsed set |
| Short interest | Sep 15, 2026 | 5,019,933 shares short, 1.36% of shares outstanding; 2.74 days to cover. | −11.79% from prior settlement; −6.2% vs June; +31.1% year over year |
Chart: Thermo Fisher through six filing lenses — who is actually there?
Superinvestors. The tracked register for Thermo Fisher is broad by this series' standards, and it grew fast in Q2 — but the growth is concentrated in a few names, and the single largest move starts from almost nothing. Twenty-two of 147 tracked managers hold 14,210,756 common shares — $7,124,721,908 reported — and the largest holder is 21.5% of it. Dodge & Cox Funds holds 3,054,778 shares at 0.8% of its portfolio, labelled INCREASED in Q2. The label recomputes exactly against a verified Q1 pair of just 25,741 shares, so the +11,767.4% figure is real — a jump from a very small base. EdgePoint Investment Group holds 2,179,650 shares (15.3%) at 8.26% of its portfolio, up 13.6%. The two largest holders together are 36.8% of the cohort. Two names are new: Viking Global Investors with 1,937,415 shares and Harry Burn's Sound Shore with 165,318 shares, together 2,102,733 shares. The direction count is 12 increases, 2 new, 7 decreases, and 1 unchanged. Two managers exited: Cantillon Capital Management (769,698 shares) and Generation Investment Management (773,600 shares), together 1,543,298 shares. Two September early filers also hold TMO — Sarasin & Partners (256,996 shares) and David Katz's Matrix Asset Advisors (23,947 shares) — but they sit outside the June cohort count; the third early filer, Montrusco Bolton Investments, holds no TMO. The verified continuing change reconciles under both pairing methods: the 20 continuing holders held 8,850,513 shares in Q1, so the cohort grew 3,257,510 shares, or 36.8%, in Q2, while its reported value grew 39.5% to $6,070,495,692 — shares up sharply, value up a little more, because the June 30 close ($501.36) sits above the March 31 close ($491.53). The Q2 pipeline register reconciles exactly (June cohort plus early-filer Q2 rows equals 14,505,296 shares, residual zero), but the Q1 register does not reconcile under the same decomposition (components exceed it by 592,543 shares), so the verified change uses only the 20 holders verified under both methods, and Viking is treated as new per the managers file even though the pipeline register carries a 1,668,025-share Q1 row under the same accession prefix as Viking's Q2 row. The cohort's implied price matches the June 30 close exactly ($501.36). The cohort is 4.26% of the full market's reported Thermo Fisher shares and 3.84% of shares outstanding — a small footprint that grew quickly, led by one extraordinary percentage move off a tiny base.
All institutions. The broad market agrees with the tracked cohort on direction, and it agrees on a much larger scale. Filers rose by 47 to 2,619, of which 2,614 are long, while reported shares rose 12.12% (+36,073,599 shares to 333,738,715). Reported value rose 15.36% to $164.11 billion — shares up and value up together, because the June 30 close sits above the March 31 close. Underneath, 1,848 filers entered and 1,801 exited, net +47. Excluding the tracked cohort, other institutions hold 319,527,959 shares — so the broad market's Q2 share growth (+36.07 million shares) dwarfs the tracked cohort's verified growth (+3.26 million shares), and both moved the same way.
Insiders. This lens needs careful wording, because the all-time record and the recent windows say different things. In the 90 days to October 2, 2026, insiders bought nothing and sold $61,559,609.35 worth of stock: 23 filings, 0 buy transactions, 93 sell transactions, 102,901 shares sold, by 5 sellers, all officer sells. In the year to October 2, 2026: 83 filings, 0 buys, 160 sells, 271,553.58 shares sold for $158,133,109.79, by 7 sellers. Across the whole corpus, there are exactly 2 buy transactions totalling 20 shares ($11,037.97), by a single buyer, Nelson Chai — and officer buy transactions are 0 in every window, so those two buys are not officer buys in this corpus. The scan for issuer CIK 97745 (156 files, all TMO, January 2, 2025 to September 29, 2026) matches the aggregate exactly. The article therefore never says insiders "never bought" without qualification: zero buys in the 90 days and in the year, exactly 2 buys totalling 20 shares across the whole corpus. Implied sell prices sit inside the price-file range in every window.
Congress. This lens is small and one-sided. The combined aggregate row is present: 0 members, 0 buys, 2 sells, and no last buy. Both sells are House sales in the $1,001 – $15,000 disclosure range: Dwight Evans (D) on May 7, 2026, and Dan Newhouse (R) on July 10, 2026. There is no Senate row (the Senate file itself is as of October 1, 2026). Amounts are disclosure ranges, not dollar values, and they are never summed. This is a populated-row finding — two small-range sales and no buys — and it is never added to the Form 4 insider totals.
13D/G. The control register is entirely passive — and it has only one live position in it. It holds 2 filings: 1 Schedule 13G and 1 Schedule 13G/A amendment, with no Schedule 13D form at all. The latest filing, April 30, 2026, is Vanguard Capital Management at 7.53% (28,008,822 shares, event March 31, 2026). The earlier filing, March 27, 2026, is a Vanguard Group Schedule 13G/A whose parsed reporter row carries 0.0 shares and 0.0% — reported here as parsed, not interpreted as an exit or a position. The aggregate matches the parsed set exactly. The Vanguard 13G position is a passive-holder filing, not a tracked-superinvestor position, and Vanguard is not in the tracked register for Thermo Fisher.
Short interest. The bear trade is small, and it eased in the latest settlement after a year of building. FINRA short interest stood at 5,019,933 shares at September 15, 2026, with 2.74 days to cover and 1.36% of the 369,747,286 shares outstanding (a June 27, 2026 point-in-time count). That is 11.79% below the prior settlement (5,690,588 at August 31, which is also the series peak), 6.2% below June 30 (5,351,535), and 31.1% above the year-ago figure (3,829,062 at September 15, 2025). The last five settlements trace a rise and a pullback: 5,298,322 (July 15), 4,985,877 (July 31), 4,744,180 (August 14), 5,690,588 (August 31), 5,019,933 (September 15). No step over 2× and no step under 0.5× appears across 137 settlements. Three rows carry a revision flag; no row carries a stock-split flag.
Chart: TMO short interest — 137 FINRA settlements, January 2021 to September 2026.
Fundamentals context. Shares outstanding are 369,747,286 as of June 27, 2026 (a point-in-time DEI count — the 1.36% short ratio inherits that basis), revenue is $44,556,000,000 and net income is $6,704,000,000, both for FY2025, and assets are $110,343,000,000 for FY2025. The recorded market capitalisation is $242,768,679,360.80, on the record's own price_close ($656.58 as of October 6, 2026), not the October 23 close.
The Gap
The attention and the filing tape agree on direction but disagree on who is driving it. A trending listing puts Thermo Fisher in front of readers while the price has recovered 30.6% from June 30 to October 2, and the filings show the tracked cohort and the broad market both adding shares in Q2. The gap is inside the tape: the tracked cohort's headline growth is led by a single holder's 11,767.4% jump off a 25,741-share base, the broad market's growth is far larger in absolute shares, the company's own insiders sold $61.6 million in 90 days without buying a share, Congress shows two small-range sales and no buys, the control register holds one passive position and nothing activist, and short interest sits at just 1.36% of shares outstanding after easing from its peak. In short: institutions add while insiders sell, a passive holder sits still at 7.53%, and the bear trade is too small to be the story.
What Would Change the Picture
Nothing above is a recommendation. It is a record. What would change it:
- 1. Q3 13F season (filings due by November 16, 2026). Watch whether Dodge & Cox holds, adds to, or trims its 3,054,778-share position after a 11,767.4% quarter, whether Viking's 1,937,415-share new position survives its first full quarter in the register, and whether the verified cohort's 36.8% Q2 growth holds, reverses, or accelerates.
- 2. A first insider buy in the Form 4 corpus — any buy transaction after October 2, 2026, and especially an officer buy — would break a run of zero buys in the 90 days and in the year; continued selling at the 90-day pace ($61.6 million) would extend it.
- 3. A first congressional buy, or a Senate row for TMO — any attributed member purchase, or any Senate filing at all — would replace a lens that currently holds two small-range House sales and nothing else.
- 4. A new Schedule 13G/A from Vanguard above or below 7.53%, a new passive reporter above 5%, or a first Schedule 13D filing would change a control register that currently holds one passive position and no activist filing.
- 5. Short-interest direction. A rebuild back above the August 31 peak of 5,690,588 — or a fall back toward the June 30 level of 5,351,535 and below — would each tell a different story about the bear position that eased 11.79% in the latest settlement.
As-of & Limits
| Lens | As of | Limit or note |
|---|---|---|
| Superinvestors (13F) | Jun 30, 2026 | 13F figures are as of June 30, 2026, the quarter-end. Funds have up to 45 days after quarter-end to file, so this is the most recent complete picture — and it is always a lagging one. Common stock only (CUSIP 883556102); no option rows, no second class in the tracked file. All 20 Q1→Q2 changes verify exactly under both pairing methods. The Q2 register reconciles with residual zero; the Q1 register does not (components exceed it by 592,543 shares), and Viking is treated as new per the managers file. Dodge's +11,767.4% is a verified jump from a 25,741-share Q1 base. September early filers holding TMO: Sarasin & Partners 256,996 shares; Matrix Asset Advisors 23,947 shares; Montrusco Bolton Investments holds none. |
| All institutions (13F) | Jun 30, 2026 | Reported value includes option rows by definition; implied price ($491.74 in Q2) is not a price check. Value rose with shares because the June close sits above the March close. |
| Insiders (Form 4) | Oct 2, 2026 | Zero buys in the 90 days and in the year to October 2, 2026; exactly 2 buys totalling 20 shares across the whole corpus, by a single non-officer buyer. Officer buy transactions are 0 in every window. The scan (156 files, issuer CIK 97745) matches the aggregate exactly. |
| Congress | Oct 3, 2026 | Populated-row finding: 2 House sales in the $1,001 – $15,000 range, 0 buys, no Senate row. The Senate file itself is as of October 1, 2026. Congress findings are member-disclosure aggregates, not Form 4 insider transactions, and are never added to insider totals. |
| 13D/G | Apr 30, 2026 | All-passive register: 1 SC 13G + 1 SC 13G/A, 0 SC 13D. The earlier Vanguard row carries 0.0 shares / 0.0% as parsed and is not interpreted as an exit. Filing percentages are as reported in each filing; denominators differ by filing date and are not recomputed. |
| Short interest | Sep 15, 2026 | Shares-outstanding count as of Jun 27, 2026 (point-in-time basis); the 1.36% ratio inherits that basis. The series has no step over 2× and no step under 0.5× — read the level and the drift, not a single step. |
| Prices | Oct 23, 2026 (fresh close) | Price file ends Oct 2, 2026; the Oct 23 close ($673.82) and moves derived from it are cross-source (chart_stats) and labelled as such. The price file's splits field is empty and no split adjustment is applied. The chart_stats 52-week-high field ($705.79) is a different window from the price file's 252-day high ($679.61) and is quoted as its own field. |
| Fundamentals | FY2025 | Recorded market capitalisation uses the record's own price_close ($656.58 as of Oct 6, 2026), not the Oct 23 close, and is quoted only as the record's figure. Shares outstanding are a June 27, 2026 point-in-time count. |
| Hype source | Oct 26, 2026 (TipRanks trending list) | Listing only (trending by analyst activity, values dated October 23, 2026); no other news event is cited for Thermo Fisher in this article. Price moves are measured from the price file and chart_stats. |
Methodology & disclaimer: 13F holdings are long common shares unless stated; reported values include option rows for the all-institutions lens by definition. Short interest is FINRA twice-monthly settlements. Trading costs and taxes are not reflected in any figure. Past patterns are not a promise of future results. For education only — not investment advice.
This article describes filings and market data for education. It is not investment advice. Data: SEC EDGAR 13F (as of June 30, 2026, filed within 45 days), Form 4 corpus checked through October 2, 2026 (156 parsed files for issuer CIK 97745), House/Senate disclosures through October 3, 2026, SC 13D/G parsed register through April 30, 2026, FINRA short interest at September 15, 2026 settlement. 13F covers long positions of $100M+ managers only and is always a lagging picture. Trading costs and taxes are not reflected.
Related research: Four of 147: First Eagle Is 57.1% of the Tracked Franco-Nevada Stake — and the Form 4 Corpus Holds Nothing at All · One of 147: Battalion's Only Superinvestor Held Still While the Stock Fell 66.4% in Q2 · Track the tape on Thermo Fisher's stock page and the 13F filing season hub.
Revision history: v1.0 — October 26, 2026. Initial publication. Signals and lens aggregates: tmo_lens_data.csv. Short-interest series: tmo_short_interest_series.csv.
Past patterns are not a promise of future results. For education only — not investment advice.