GetCoattail Research — Nike is the market's broken turnaround story: a fiscal first quarter that beat on earnings and missed on revenue, full-year guidance for a high-single-digit revenue decline, and a stock that closed at its 252-session low on October 2. We ran it through every filing lens we maintain. Seven of our 83 tracked superinvestors hold it at all — and one of them is 94.1% of the entire cohort. Short interest, meanwhile, has risen to the highest reading in the entire collected series.
Start with the narrative, because at the moment it is an earnings-and-guidance story. Nike reported fiscal 2027 first-quarter results on October 1, 2026, for the quarter ended August 31: revenue of $11.21 billion, down 4.3% year over year and below a consensus near $11.32–11.4 billion, against earnings per share of $0.48, above a $0.43–0.44 consensus and down 2% year over year. Gross margin expanded 60 basis points to 42.8%, and net income fell 2% to $712 million. The weakness was specific: Greater China revenue fell 22% to $1.18 billion, Nike Direct revenue fell 8% with digital sales down 13%, and Converse revenue fell 28% to $263 million. The outlook did the damage: management guided fiscal 2027 revenue to a high-single-digit decline and adjusted earnings per share to $1.15–1.35, well below the roughly $1.65 analysts had expected, alongside a Pace restructuring programme targeting $2.5 billion of savings with workforce reductions beginning in calendar 2027. Shares fell roughly 8–9% in after-hours and premarket reports; our own price file puts the October 1 close at $35.15 and the October 2 close at $33.87, down 3.6% on the day and the lowest close in 252 sessions. MarketBeat's consensus is Hold with an average target of $42.12 — one Strong Buy, nine Buy, twenty-two Hold and seven Sell ratings — and the days after the print brought a run of target cuts, including BTIG from $55 to $50, Robert W. Baird from $44 to $36, Stifel from $40 to $36 and Citigroup from $39 to $32. Social attention followed the fall: Nike drew 76 Reddit mentions in the 24 hours to October 8 in AltIndex's ranking.
Now the filings. GetCoattail tracks the investors best placed to know any company: superinvestors, institutions, insiders, Congress, and 5% holders. For Nike — the eighteenth Filing Tape audit, after IREN, CoreWeave, Micron, NVIDIA, Tesla, AMD, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Oracle, Dell, Bloom Energy, Palantir, Netflix, Starbucks, Broadcom and Verizon — the story is concentration on the long side and a record on the short side: a superinvestor register that is effectively one holder, standing almost still through a falling quarter, while the borrow against the stock climbed to a series high before the earnings print that broke the price.
Lens 1: the superinvestors — seven holders, one of them 94.1%
We track 83 large, mostly long-only managers whose 13F portfolios we collect directly from SEC EDGAR. As of June 30, 2026, seven held Nike in long common-stock positions — every reported row is a long position, with no option rows in the count. Their combined position is 15,308,937 shares worth $628,431,858. On a like-for-like pipeline basis the cohort barely moved in the second quarter, falling from 15,595,996 shares across seven holders at March 31 to 15,308,937 shares across the same seven at June 30 — down 1.8% — in a quarter when the share price fell from $52.82 to $41.05 in our price file, down 22.3%. The pipeline and EDGAR-collection second-quarter totals agree exactly, at 15,308,937 shares.
Of the seven holders, none were new, three increased, one was unchanged and three decreased. The register is dominated by a single name to a degree this series has recorded only a few times. The largest holder, Bill Nygren's Oakmark Funds, reported 14,403,570 shares worth $591,266,543, a 0.78% portfolio weight — 94.1% of the entire cohort — and decreased its position 2.5% in the quarter. The other six holders combined hold 905,367 shares, 5.9% of the cohort: Thomas Gayner at Markel is unchanged at 447,400 shares, David Katz at Matrix Asset Advisors increased 68.4% to 223,565 shares, Hillman Capital increased 0.4% to 78,213 shares, Jensen Investment Management decreased 4.8% to 71,344 shares, Mairs & Power decreased 3.2% to 63,845 shares, and Lindsell Train increased 1.0% to 21,000 shares. The top two holders together are 97.0% of the cohort. This is a register that neither arrived nor left in a quarter when the price fell by more than a fifth: it trimmed 1.8%, and almost all of it is one fund.
Lens 2: institutions — fewer filers, 15.41% more shares
Zoom out to the whole 13F market and the register consolidated. At June 30, 2026, 1,745 institutions reported positions in Nike, down from 1,900 at March 31 — an 8.2% fall — and 1,730 of them reported long positions. Reported share counts rose 15.41%, from 827,479,416 to 954,976,446 shares, with 1,366 filers entering and 1,521 exiting. The dataset's reported aggregate value fell 6.1% to $44,644,199,917; the aggregate includes option rows, so we treat filer and share counts as the reliable series and the dollar figure as reported (see methodology). Fewer filers held materially more shares in the same quarter in which the tracked cohort trimmed 1.8% — the same consolidation pattern this series recorded in Verizon.
Lens 3: the 5% register — six filings, all passive, the newest from an active manager's passive arm
Six SC 13D/G filings cover Nike — zero 13D filings and six 13G filings, one of them an amendment, from four reporting names, the most recent filed August 12, 2026. The newest row belongs to Capital World Investors, which filed a new 13G reporting 72,568,069 shares (6.0%) as of June 30, 2026. Vanguard Capital Management reported 89,476,687 shares (7.5%) as of March 31, 2026, in a filing dated April 30. State Street Corporation reported 59,588,679 shares (5.0%) as of March 31, 2026, after 58,049,195 shares (4.9%) as of September 30, 2025 and 59,163,965 shares (5.0%) as of June 30, 2025. The Vanguard Group reported 0 shares (0.0%) as of March 13, 2026 — the same reporting-name sequence that appeared in our Broadcom, Palantir, Netflix, Starbucks and Verizon audits; we report the rows as filed, without summing them or calling the zero an exit. No 13D — the filing an investor uses when it wants something from management — has appeared at all.
Lens 4: insiders — no purchases in 90 days, but a buying record inside the year
The insider lens is quieter than this series usually finds, but it is not empty. Across the parsed Form 4 record for Nike (107 filings through October 2, 2026), there are 10 open-market purchase transactions totalling 187,930.86 shares and $9,689,626.47, by five buyers — three of them recorded as officer purchases, totalling $3,001,424.77 — against 25 sale transactions totalling 680,381 shares and $46,204,412.84, by nine sellers. Nine of the ten purchases sit inside the most recent year: nine transactions totalling $9,186,870.47 by five buyers, against 13 sales totalling $8,076,476.62 in the same window. In the 90 days through October 2, 2026, however, insiders filed 34 reports covering zero purchases and eight sale transactions totalling 19,441 shares and $771,332.99, by five sellers. Our site's insider aggregate, compiled as of October 9, 2026, matches the full-parse 90-day figures exactly — zero purchases, eight sales, $771,332.99, five sellers — so there is no discrepancy to disclose on this lens. Some selling is mechanical — vesting, tax withholding and pre-arranged plans generate filings regardless of anyone's view — and we assign no motives. What the record establishes is a sequence: insiders bought within the last year, in size larger than they sold in that window, and then bought nothing at all in the quarter that ended with the October 1 guidance cut.
Lens 5: Congress — no buys, three sells, House only
Across the Senate and House transaction record we maintain (as of October 3, 2026), Nike shows zero purchase transactions and three sale transactions, with no most-recent purchase recorded. The House aggregate carries all three sales; the Senate aggregate has no Nike row at all. The combined record's member-count field is zero, so we report transaction counts only and do not name a member count for this lens. Congressional disclosures report value ranges rather than exact amounts, so we record direction only. The sample is three transactions, and every one of them is a sale.
Lens 6: short interest — 5.79% of the share count, and a series record
As of September 15, 2026 — the most recent FINRA settlement date — 85,698,150 Nike shares were sold short, with days-to-cover of 3.10. That is 5.79% of the 1,479,800,000 shares outstanding in our fundamentals file (a share count as of May 31, 2026). It is also the highest reading in the entire collected series of 137 settlements running from January 15, 2021: the latest value is the peak.
The recent settlements run 63,943,595 on July 15, then 57,371,605, 68,828,976, 75,594,334 and 85,698,150 — three consecutive increases after July 31, each of them a step toward the record. One timing fact matters for reading this lens: the September 15 settlement predates the October 1 earnings report by more than two weeks. The borrow did not react to the guidance cut; it was already at a record before the guidance existed in public.
The gap, stated plainly
Nike's filing record is a study in registers moving at different speeds. The tracked superinvestors hold 15,308,937 shares across seven managers, and 94.1% of that is a single holder, Oakmark, which decreased 2.5% in a quarter when the price fell 22.3% — no tracked manager opened a position, three increased small ones, and the cohort as a whole trimmed 1.8%. The full market moved the other way on shares: 1,745 filers, down 8.2%, holding 954,976,446 shares, up 15.41% — consolidation in the broad register while the named register stood nearly still. Insiders bought nine times inside the last year, for $9,186,870.47, and then recorded zero purchases in the 90 days through October 2, against $771,332.99 of sales. Congress is three House sales and no buys. And the short side is the loudest lens of the six: 85,698,150 shares sold short at September 15, a series record, up 140.1% year over year, set before the October 1 print reset the price to a 252-session low. One plausible reading is that Nike's second-quarter register already reflected a stock being repositioned — broad holders consolidating, insiders pausing after a year of buying, and borrowers building — while the concentrated value register that dominates the headline count simply held its one large position and waited. The record supports each clause separately; it does not say which register is right.
What would change the picture
Nothing above is a recommendation. It is a record. These are the filings that would change the description:
- 1. The 2026Q3 13Fs (filing window closing mid-November 2026). Whether Oakmark's 14,403,570 shares — 94.1% of the superinvestor cohort after a 2.5% trim — survive the third quarter, in which the price fell a further 17.5% from June 30 to October 2 and at whose very end the October 1 guidance landed, is the whole superinvestor lens for this stock: one holder's next filing either confirms the register or empties it.
- 2. A resumption of insider buying — or its continued absence. The record holds nine purchases inside the last year and none in the last 90 days. A single open-market purchase after the guidance cut would restart a pattern that stopped before it; continued silence through the next quarter would make the pause the pattern.
- 3. The short-interest series from its record. The borrow peaked — so far — at 85,698,150 shares on September 15, 2026, before the earnings print. The settlements published after October 1 are the first that can show whether borrowers treated the guidance cut as confirmation or as a covering opportunity: FINRA publishes every two weeks, making this the fastest-updating series in this audit.
- 4. Second-quarter fiscal 2027 results and the Pace programme's first numbers. The next print tests the guidance the filings are arguing over: a high-single-digit revenue decline for fiscal 2027, adjusted earnings per share of $1.15–1.35, and $2.5 billion of targeted Pace savings against a consensus target of $42.12 sitting above a $33.87 close in our price file.
- 5. A first congressional purchase, or a first Senate row. The record is three House sales, no buys, and no Senate row at all. Any purchase — from either chamber — changes a one-directional lens; continued sales-only prints extend it.
Until one of those prints, the filing record describes a stock whose broad register added 15.41% more shares in the second quarter while its tracked superinvestors trimmed 1.8% at seven holders — one of them holding 94.1% of the cohort — whose insiders bought inside the year but not inside the quarter, and whose short borrow stood at a series record before the guidance cut that took the price to a 252-session low.
Related reading: Seven of 83: One Holder Is 92.2% of the Superinvestors' Verizon Stake. Its Insiders Have Never Bought a Share. — Filing Tape #17; Thirteen of 83: The Superinvestors Cut Broadcom 57.9% While the Price Rose 22.0% — Filing Tape #16; Zero of 83: The Superinvestors Aren't in IREN — Filing Tape #1. Nike's own page: Nike (NKE) on GetCoattail.
Methodology and data notes
- Superinvestor lens: 83 managers collected directly from SEC EDGAR Form 13F (managers_13f collection), positions as of June 30, 2026; Nike identified by CUSIP 654106103. Seven distinct managers hold long positions totalling 15,308,937 shares; all seven reported rows are long (no put or call rows). Quarter-to-quarter cohort totals (15,595,996 shares across 7 pipeline rows at March 31; 15,308,937 across 7 pipeline rows at June 30) are from the site pipeline's holdings files on the same CUSIP basis in both quarters; the change is −1.8% ((15,308,937 / 15,595,996) − 1), and the pipeline's second-quarter total agrees exactly with the EDGAR collection's long total (difference: 0 shares). Oakmark's share of the cohort is 14,403,570 / 15,308,937 = 94.1%; the top two holders total 97.0%; the six holders other than Oakmark total 905,367 shares = 5.9%. Direction counts across the seven long holders: 0 new, 3 increased, 1 unchanged, 3 decreased.
- Full-market lens: SEC Form 13F Data Sets full-market aggregation (the fixtures underlying our 2026Q1–Q2 market tables). Holders = distinct filers reporting the CUSIP; 1,730 of the 1,745 reported long positions. Reported-value caution: the aggregate value ($44,644,199,917 over 954,976,446 shares) implies ≈$46.75 per share against a June 30, 2026 close of $41.05 in our price file, a gap of 13.9%. The aggregate sums the VALUE of every information-table row — including put and call option rows — while the share count covers long common-stock rows only, so we headline filer and share counts and label dollar values "reported."
- Insider lens: full-parse Form 4 aggregation (agg_by_ticker), record as of October 2, 2026 (107 filings). Sale and purchase counts are transaction-code counts (S and P) in non-derivative rows; grants and exercises are not counted as purchases, and one filing can contain many transaction rows. Purchase transactions total 10 across the full record (187,930.86 shares, $9,689,626.47, five buyers), of which nine fall in the most recent year ($9,186,870.47); officer purchases total three transactions and $3,001,424.77, all inside the one-year window. In the 90 days through October 2, 2026: zero purchases, eight sale transactions, $771,332.99, five sellers. The site's insider aggregate (compiled as of October 9, 2026) matches the full-parse 90-day figures exactly.
- 13D/G lens: full-parse SC 13D/G aggregation and parsed filings (6 filings matching CUSIP 654106103, 4 reporting names), filings through August 12, 2026. Vanguard Capital Management's 89,476,687-share row (event date March 31, 2026) and The Vanguard Group's 0-share row (event date March 13, 2026) are reported as separate rows from separate reporting persons and are not summed. The aggregation's totalSharesReported field sums overlapping reporters and successive amendments and is not used. Percentages are quoted exactly as reported in the respective filings.
- Congress lens: Senate PTR archive and House PTR archive as maintained on this site, combined record as of October 3, 2026. Counts are transaction counts in the aggregated member record; congressional disclosures report value ranges, so no dollar figures are used for this lens. The combined record shows zero buys and three sells, with the member-count field at zero and no last-buy date recorded; the House aggregate (as of October 3, 2026) shows the same zero buys and three sells, and the Senate aggregate (as of October 1, 2026) has no Nike row. Because the member-count field is zero, the article reports transaction counts only.
- Short interest lens: FINRA Equity Short Interest files (biweekly settlement dates), collected directly from FINRA's public distribution; the Nike series covers 137 settlements from January 15, 2021 to September 15, 2026. The peak of 85,698,150 shares on September 15, 2026 is the peak of the full collected series, and the latest reading — the two coincide in this audit. FINRA publishes each settlement about two weeks after the fact. The share-count ratio uses the fundamentals file's share count of 1,479,800,000 — a shares-outstanding count as of May 31, 2026.
- Fundamentals note: our fundamentals collection carries Nike's fiscal-2026 revenue of $46,398,000,000, net income of $3,108,000,000 and assets of $38,410,000,000 (fiscal year ended May 31, 2026). The market value of about $51.2 billion uses that file's October 6, 2026 price ($34.61) and reported share count.
- Prices: our own daily-close file for Nike through October 2, 2026 ($33.87 close, −46.8% year to date on that file; 252-session closing high $74.57 on October 2, 2025; 252-session closing low $33.87 on October 2, 2026 — the latest close is the low; closes of $52.82 at March 31, 2026 and $41.05 at June 30, 2026, a second-quarter change of −22.3%; change from June 30 to October 2 of −17.5% ((33.87 / 41.05) − 1); October 1, 2026 close of $35.15, making the October 2 change −3.6%). The drawdown from the 252-session closing high is −54.6% ((33.87 / 74.57) − 1).
- Market context sources: fiscal 2027 first-quarter results (revenue $11.21 billion, down 4.3% year over year, against a consensus near $11.32–11.4 billion; EPS $0.48 against a $0.43–0.44 consensus, down 2%; gross margin 42.8%, up 60 basis points; net income $712 million, down 2%; Nike Direct revenue down 8%, digital down 13%, Converse revenue $263 million, down 28%; reported October 1, 2026 for the quarter ended August 31, 2026) — Zacks, AInvest and ad-hoc-news coverage, checked October 9, 2026; Greater China revenue down 22% to $1.18 billion — AInvest coverage, checked October 9, 2026; fiscal 2027 guidance (revenue to decline by a high-single-digit percentage; adjusted EPS of $1.15–1.35 against roughly $1.65 expected; Pace programme targeting $2.5 billion of savings with workforce reductions beginning in calendar 2027) — AInvest, CoinCentral and ad-hoc-news coverage of the company release, checked October 9, 2026; after-hours and premarket share declines of roughly 8–9% following the report — Zacks, AInvest and CoinCentral coverage, checked October 9, 2026; MarketBeat consensus target of $42.12 (Hold consensus; one Strong Buy, nine Buy, twenty-two Hold and seven Sell ratings) and post-results target cuts (BTIG $55 to $50 with a Buy rating; Robert W. Baird $44 to $36, neutral; Stifel $40 to $36, Hold; Citigroup $39 to $32) — MarketBeat coverage as carried by Defense World and American Banking News, checked October 9, 2026; social-media attention ranking (Nike sixth among meme-stock mentions in the source ranking used for this series, 76 in 24 hours, updated October 8, 2026) — AltIndex, checked October 9, 2026. Figures we could not confirm against two sources were left out.
- Nike is in the GetCoattail stock-page universe: Nike (NKE) stock page. Series data: nke_lens_data.csv · nke_short_interest_series.csv. Earlier audits: Verizon · Broadcom · IREN.
This article describes public filings as of the dates stated. It is not investment advice and makes no recommendation. Filings lag reality: 13F positions are as of June 30, 2026, and later trading is not yet public.
Revision history
- v1.0 — October 9, 2026: first publication.