GetCoattail Research — The Filing Tape #181. Suncor Energy through six filing lenses, as of the latest filings. Past patterns are not a promise of future results. For education only — not investment advice.
The Hype
Suncor Energy sits at the top of a list that is itself the hype. Zacks' "Best Stocks to Buy Now" page, updated October 24, 2026, lists Suncor Energy (SU) first: $79.38, up 2.54% on the day, with a 12-week price change of +18.96% (Zacks). The daily refresh puts the October 23 close at exactly the same $79.38 — 1.1% below the $80.25 52-week-high field, and 47.9% above the June 30 close of $53.68.
The operating backdrop behind the attention is a second quarter that beat expectations on the measures analysts track. Suncor reported adjusted operating earnings of USD 2.33 per share against a USD 2.14 consensus, with operating revenue of USD 12.70 billion against USD 10.30 billion expected, as reported from Zacks' recap (ad-hoc-news, summarising the August 4, 2026 report). Upstream production fell to 760,900 barrels per day from 808,100 a year earlier, while refinery throughput rose to 470,600 from 442,300. October then added two more catalysts. On October 4, Suncor agreed to sell offshore interests to Ithaca Energy for CAD 1.20 billion upfront plus up to CAD 350.00 million in contingent payments, retaining its Hebron and Hibernia interests, with closing expected in early 2027 (ad-hoc-news, reporting Reuters). It also raised monthly repurchases from CAD 500 million to CAD 750 million from October 2026. Analyst targets followed: UBS raised its target to CAD 120.00 from CAD 103.00 on October 15, 2026, maintaining a Buy rating (ad-hoc-news), and Desjardins raised its target to CAD 117.00 from CAD 110.00 on October 20, 2026, also maintaining a Buy rating (ad-hoc-news). Third-quarter results are due November 3, 2026, with a webcast on November 4.
The price tape, however, does not show a straight climb. Suncor closed 2025 at $44.36, rose to $66.11 by March 31, 2026, then fell 18.8% in Q2 to $53.68, recovered to $67.87 by September 30, and closed the price file on October 2 at $69.56 — 29.6% above its June 30 close. The daily refresh puts the October 23 close at $79.38 — cross-source, since the price file ends October 2 — 17.0% above September 30 and 78.9% above the 2025 year-end close. The question the filings let us ask: while analysts raised targets and the price rebounded, what did the tracked holders do in the quarter the price fell — and has anyone come back since?
The Tape
| Lens | As of | What the filings show | Direction vs prior period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Superinvestors (13F) | Jun 30, 2026 | 6 of 147 tracked managers hold; 28,048,102 shares ($1.51B reported). Dodge & Cox is 90.4%. | Verified continuing cohort −36.2%; 1 new holder; no exits |
| All institutions (13F) | Jun 30, 2026 | 756 filers hold 790,206,089 shares ($43.22B reported). | Shares +1.37%; filers +6; reported value −16.17% |
| Insiders (Form 4) | Oct 2, 2026 | Not available: no Suncor filing in the Form 4 corpus. | No buy/sell statement can be made from this corpus |
| Congress | Oct 3, 2026 | No member of either chamber reported a Suncor trade in the window. | None |
| 13D/G | Jul 22, 2025 | Passive only: 2 filings, both BlackRock; latest 5.2%. | No filing in 2026 in the parsed register |
| Short interest | Sep 15, 2026 | 20,739,907 shares short, 1.74% of shares outstanding; 3.69 days to cover. | +188.7% vs Jun 30; +95.1% year over year; −80.5% from the 2022 peak |
Chart: Suncor through six filing lenses — who is actually there?
Superinvestors. The June-quarter register is small, concentrated, and shrinking — with one exception. Six of the 147 tracked managers hold Suncor ordinary shares at June 30, 2026: 28,048,102 shares, $1,505,880,199 reported, with no option rows and no non-common rows. Dodge & Cox Funds alone holds 25,366,554 shares — 90.4% of the cohort — at a 0.71% portfolio weight, after trimming 3.4% in the quarter. The second holder, GQG Partners, holds 2,293,204 shares (8.2%), after cutting 86.7%. Together the top two are 98.6% of the tracked stake; the other four holders combined are under 400,000 shares. The direction mix is five decreases and one new position, with no increases and no exits: Guinness Asset Management trimmed 14.6% to 219,341 shares, Maverick Capital trimmed 6.7% to 21,374, Century Management trimmed 0.1% to 9,103, and Causeway Capital Management opened a genuine new position of 138,526 shares — verified as new because no Suncor row sits under its filing prefix in Q1.
The verified continuing cohort tells the sharper story. The five holders present in both quarters held 43,770,009 shares in Q1 and 27,909,576 in Q2 — a 36.2% cut, or 15,860,433 shares — and every label recomputes exactly from paired register rows. GQG accounts for almost all of it: 17,218,819 shares in Q1 down to 2,293,204 in Q2. Dodge & Cox, the dominant holder, trimmed only 3.4%, from 26,262,454 to 25,366,554. The June implied price ($53.69) matches the June 30 close ($53.68), and both register reconciliations close with residual zero. The cohort is 3.55% of the full market's reported Suncor shares. Separately, September early filer Montrusco Bolton holds 196,042 shares ($13,324,918), down 32.6% from its Q2 register row of 290,970 — the one early Q3 data point continues the cutting direction.
All institutions. The full 13F market barely moved in share terms. Filers rose by 6 to 756, of which 750 are long, and reported shares rose 1.37% (+10,674,165 shares to 790,206,089). Reported value fell 16.17% to $43.22 billion — not because institutions sold, but because the June 30 close ($53.68) sits below the March 31 close ($66.11), and value carries that price fall. Underneath, 689 filers entered and 683 exited, net +6. So the broad market held its share count roughly flat while the tracked cohort cut more than a third: the selling is concentrated in tracked names, led by GQG.
Insiders. This lens is blank, and the blank itself must be stated plainly. Suncor does not appear in the Form 4 corpus at all: the aggregate carries no SU bucket, a parsed-file scan for issuer CIK 311337 returns zero files, and the site aggregate carries no SU row, all checked through October 2, 2026. That means no statement about insider buying or selling can be made from this corpus — not "insiders bought nothing," not "insiders have never bought." Readers who want an insider signal for Suncor will not find one in these filings, and this article does not invent one from the absence. The fundamentals record flags Suncor as a foreign private issuer; no conclusion is drawn about its insiders' disclosure regime.
Congress. Nothing to report, and the nothing is checked rather than assumed. Suncor has no row in any of the four congressional files within their stated windows — no House or Senate row, and no member row — as of October 3, 2026. That is a zero-activity-in-window finding, not a claim that no member ever traded the stock outside those windows.
13D/G. The control register is thin, passive, and stale. It holds just 2 filings, both from a single reporter, BlackRock, Inc.: 61,072,732 shares at 4.9% (event March 31, 2025, filed April 28, 2025) and then 63,591,210 shares at 5.2% (event June 30, 2025, filed July 22, 2025 — the latest filing and the maximum percentage). There are no activist 13D filings, and no Suncor 13D/G filing at all in 2026 in the parsed register. Whatever BlackRock or any other large holder has done since July 2025 does not appear in this lens, and the article does not fill that gap with a guess.
Short interest. The bear trade built fast through the summer, then fell back in September — but from a low base, so the level is still far above June. FINRA short interest stood at 7,183,388 shares at June 30, 2026, rose through 9,315,057 (July 15) and 13,262,277 (July 31) to 23,419,730 (August 14) and 29,450,776 (August 31), then fell 29.58% in one settlement to 20,739,907 at September 15, 2026, with 3.69 days to cover and 1.74% of the 1,193,519,494 shares outstanding (a December 31, 2025 count, so the ratio inherits that staleness). The September level is 188.7% above June and 95.1% above the year-ago figure of 10,632,632, while remaining 80.5% below the series peak of 106,453,286 shares at November 30, 2022. Caution: the series is steppy — 18 settlements moved over 2× and 19 under 0.5× — so read levels with the path, not as a precise gauge.
Chart: SU short interest — 137 FINRA settlements, January 2021 to September 2026.
Fundamentals context. The fundamentals record is complete on the fields quoted here: 1,193,519,494 shares outstanding as of December 31, 2025, net income of CAD 5,918,000,000 and assets of CAD 89,913,000,000 for FY2025, and a recorded market capitalisation of $81,421,901,337.61. Revenue is not quoted: the record's revenue value carries a 2017 fiscal-year stamp. For this foreign private issuer, the record notes shares are home-market based while the close may be ADS-based, so the recorded market cap may not reflect the ADS ratio.
The Gap
The hype and the filing tape disagree about timing more than direction. The October story is a rebound story: targets raised, an asset sale announced, buybacks increased, a price 47.9% above its June close and 1.1% below its 52-week-high field. The filings show that the tracked holders did their selling before that rebound, in the quarter the price fell 18.8%: the verified cohort cut 36.2%, GQG cut 86.7%, and no tracked holder added to a position in Q2 — the only new name, Causeway, opened a small 138,526-share position while the other five all trimmed. The broad market, by contrast, held its share count flat. Then the one early Q3 filer, Montrusco Bolton, cut a further 32.6%.
Two lenses cannot arbitrate the rebound at all. The insider lens is empty in this corpus, so there is no insider-buy signal to confirm or contradict the target raises. The control register has not been updated since July 2025, so BlackRock's 5.2% is a year-old snapshot, not a current position. The short-interest path adds a wrinkle rather than resolving one: shorts built through August as the price recovered from June, then fell in September while the price kept rising into October — one plausible reading is that the August build was a bet against the rebound that partly covered into September, but the filings alone cannot establish who covered or why. With only one early Q3 filer reporting, the Q3 register is still mostly unwritten — the rebound's filing verdict has not arrived yet.
What Would Change the Picture
Nothing above is a recommendation. It is a record. What would change it:
- 1. Q3 13F season (filings due by November 16, 2026). Watch whether Dodge & Cox adds back to its 25,366,554-share position, whether GQG returns after its 86.7% Q2 cut, and whether any tracked manager opens a new Suncor position — the register starts Q3 from six June holders, so any entry or return is measurable against that base.
- 2. A Form 4 filing for Suncor appearing in the corpus. Any insider filing at all would end the blank-lens state; until one appears, no insider conclusion for SU can be drawn from these filings.
- 3. A new 13D or 13G. The first filing since July 22, 2025 — a BlackRock update, a new holder above 5%, or any activist 13D — would replace a stale snapshot with a current control-register picture.
- 4. Short-interest direction. A fall back toward the June 30 level of 7,183,388 — or a rebuild above the August 31 level of 29,450,776 — would each tell a different story about the bear trade after the September fall.
- 5. Filings after the November 3 results. The third-quarter report, and any share issuance or buyback activity it brings, will show up in the next round of filings before it shows up anywhere else.
As-of & Limits
| Lens | As of | Limit or note |
|---|---|---|
| Superinvestors (13F) | Jun 30, 2026 | 13F figures are as of June 30, 2026, the quarter-end. Funds have up to 45 days after quarter-end to file, so this is the most recent complete picture — and it is always a lagging one. September early filer Montrusco Bolton is reported separately, not in the June cohort. |
| All institutions (13F) | Jun 30, 2026 | Reported value includes option rows by definition; implied price ($54.69 in Q2) is not a price check. Value fell while shares rose because the June close sits below the March close. |
| Insiders (Form 4) | Oct 2, 2026 | Not available: no Suncor filing in the Form 4 corpus (no agg bucket, zero parsed files for issuer CIK 311337, no site row). Zeros from a mechanical merge mean absence of record, not zero trades. |
| Congress | Oct 3, 2026 | Zero-activity-in-window finding only; windows are the files' stated windows, not all history. |
| 13D/G | Jul 22, 2025 | Passive only in the parsed register; latest filing over a year old, so this lens is stale. Total shares reported (124,663,942) sums two dates and is not an economic total. |
| Short interest | Sep 15, 2026 | Shares-outstanding count as of Dec 31, 2025; the 1.74% ratio inherits that staleness. Series is steppy (18 moves over 2×, 19 under 0.5×) — read levels with the path. |
| Prices | Oct 23, 2026 (fresh close) | Price file ends Oct 2, 2026; the Oct 23 close ($79.38) and moves derived from it are cross-source (chart_stats) and labelled as such. |
| Fundamentals | FY2025 | Revenue not quoted (record's revenue value carries a 2017 fiscal-year stamp). Market cap quoted with the record's FPI/ADS note. |
This article describes filings and market data for education. It is not investment advice. Data: SEC EDGAR 13F (as of June 30, 2026, filed within 45 days), Form 4 corpus checked through October 2, 2026 (no Suncor filing found), House/Senate disclosures through October 3, 2026, SC 13D/G parsed register through July 22, 2025, FINRA short interest at September 15, 2026 settlement. 13F covers long positions of $100M+ managers only and is always a lagging picture. Trading costs and taxes are not reflected.
Related research: Zero of 147: The Superinvestors Hold No IonQ — and the One They Held Exited in Q2 · Two of 147: One Holder Is 76.0% of the Tracked monday.com Stake — and More Than Tripled It While the Full Market Shrunk · Track the tape on Suncor's stock page and the 13F filing season hub.
Revision history: v1.0 — October 24, 2026. Initial publication. Signals and lens aggregates: su_lens_data.csv. Short-interest series: su_short_interest_series.csv.
Past patterns are not a promise of future results. For education only — not investment advice.