RESEARCH — THE FILING TAPE #41

One of 83: The Only Superinvestor in Coinbase Added in Q2. Its Insiders Have Never Bought a Share.

October 9, 2026

GetCoattail Research — Coinbase is the largest U.S. crypto exchange, and in October it sits eleventh on AltIndex's meme-stock list — after a week in which five analysts published price targets $131 apart, from $149 to $280, ahead of an October 29 earnings date. The filings describe a thinner register than the argument suggests: one tracked superinvestor holds the stock and added 7.34% in the June quarter, the full market's share count rose 24.00% while its filer count fell, its insiders have never recorded an open-market purchase against $954,009,508.69 of sales, and the borrow against the stock is up 82.7% in a year.

Start with the narrative. AltIndex's meme-stock list, updated on October 11, ranked Coinbase eleventh by Reddit mentions over the prior 24 hours, with 30 mentions and a bullish sentiment flag, at a displayed price of $179.39. The coverage behind the ranking is an argument about value, conducted in public: on October 7, Goldman Sachs raised its target to $244 from $219 and kept a Buy rating, while Barclays raised its target to $149 from $95 and kept an Underweight rating; Morgan Stanley raised its target to $258 from $250 on October 9, and Citizens JMP cut its target to $280 from $325 the same day while keeping a Market Outperform rating — still the highest of the set. The spread between the lowest and highest of those targets is $131. The broader consensus, as aggregated by MarketBeat and reported in October, reads Hold from 36 analysts — 20 Buy, 13 Hold and 3 Sell ratings — with an average target of $224.60. The company's next earnings release is scheduled for October 29. Our own price file, which ends October 2, puts the last close at $183.00 — down 19.1% year to date on that file, and 52.7% below the 252-session closing high of $387.27 set on October 8, 2025.

Now the filings. For Coinbase — the forty-first Filing Tape audit — the tape is a study in how few of the tracked registers are actually populated: a single famous-money holder who added while the price fell, a broad market that added shares through fewer filers, a 5% register with no activist filing at all, an insider record with zero purchases in it, a congressional record split evenly, and a borrow that has grown by more than four-fifths in a year.

Lens 1: the superinvestors — one holder, 462,016 shares, increased 7.34%

We track 83 large, mostly long-only managers whose 13F portfolios we collect directly from SEC EDGAR. As of June 30, 2026, 1 held Coinbase long — no option rows — totalling 462,016 shares worth $67,542,293. The direction count, on the collection's own labels, is one increased.

Samantha McLemore's Patient Capital Management holds all of it: 462,016 shares worth $67,542,293, a 2.21% portfolio weight, flagged increased — 100.0% of the tracked cohort's Coinbase shares, because it is the only holder. The cohort total moved from 430,405 shares at March 31 to 462,016 at June 30, a change of +7.34%, a difference of +31,611 shares, and that move is Patient Capital's own: its first-quarter row was 430,405 shares, and its increase of 7.3% on the collection's label matches the recalculation exactly. No manager appears in the collection's exit list for this name in the second quarter, and the two collections' second-quarter totals match to the share. The price fell from $174.61 at March 31 to $146.19 at June 30, a change of -16.3%, and the holder's reported value implies $146.19 per share, matching the June 30 close exactly. In other words, the one tracked manager in Coinbase spent the quarter in which its price fell by a sixth adding to the position — a register of one, moving one way.

Coinbase through six filing lenses
Chart 1: Signal presence by cohort. Superinvestors: 83 managers, 2026Q2 13F (as of Jun 30, 2026). Institutions: full-market 13F aggregation, same date. Insiders: Form 4 record through Oct 2, 2026. Congress: Senate and House PTR records through Oct 3, 2026. 13D/G: filings through May 15, 2026. Short interest: FINRA biweekly settlement data through Sep 15, 2026. Source: SEC EDGAR; FINRA; GetCoattail collections.

Lens 2: institutions — 1,125 filers, down 54, shares up 24.00%

Zoom out to the whole 13F market and the June quarter was a concentrating register. At June 30, 2026, 1,125 institutions reported positions, down 54 from 1,179 at March 31 (-4.58%), and 1,113 reported long positions. Reported shares rose 24.00%, from 116,689,185 to 144,697,310 shares — 28,008,125 more shares than the prior quarter, held across fewer filers. Reported aggregate value fell 3.19% to $32,329,764,569; the aggregate includes option rows, so we headline filer and share counts and label dollars "reported" (see methodology). That caution matters here: the implied value per share, $223.43, sits 52.8% above the June 30 close of $146.19, because the reported total sums every information-table row while the share count covers long common-stock rows only. Set the two 13F lenses side by side and they agree on shares and disagree on breadth: the tracked cohort added 7.34% and the full market added 24.00%, while the full market's filer count shrank by 54. The broad register spent the quarter concentrating — more shares, fewer names reporting them.

Lens 3: the 5% register — ten filings, all of them passive, none of them 13D

Our full parse holds ten SC 13D/G filings for Coinbase — three SC 13G originals and seven SC 13G/A amendments, and no SC 13D filing at all, sixteen reporting persons on a row basis, the most recent filed May 15, 2026. The register's maximum percentage belongs to an insider's own paper: Brian Armstrong printed 33,103,998 shares (13.91%) as of December 31, 2024, in a filing that also prints The Brian Armstrong Living Trust at 24,231,751 shares (10.58%) — two rows in one filing, reported here exactly as filed and never summed. The Vanguard Group printed 24,175,749 shares (11.43%) as of May 30, 2025, followed by an amendment printing 0 shares (0.0%) as of March 13, 2026 — while Vanguard Capital Management, a separate reporting-person name, printed 16,327,137 shares (7.32%) as of March 31, 2026. We report the rows exactly as filed and never merge the two Vanguard names. BlackRock's latest row prints 14,618,089 shares (6.9%) as of June 30, 2025. The Jane Street group's parent row printed 14,007,775.23 shares (6.8%) as of December 31, 2024 — with four component rows printed at the identical count in the same filing — and then 5,223,839 shares (2.5%) as of March 31, 2025. The Susquehanna group rows, four names printed at identical counts, printed 11,118,835 shares (5.3%) as of March 31, 2025, and then 9,347,209 shares (4.2%) as of the same date in an amendment filed May 15, 2026 — the register's most recent filing. Frederick Ernest Ehrsam III's row prints 6,059,132 shares (2.87%) as of December 31, 2024. We report rows as filed and never sum them across the register either: the aggregation's total across these rows would add different dates together and present a history as if it were a register total. The structural fact of this lens is the empty half: ten filings, all passive 13G paper, and not one 13D — no filer in this register has declared an active intent.

Lens 4: insiders — zero purchases in the parsed record, $954,009,508.69 of sales

The parsed Form 4 record holds 192 filings through October 2, 2026. Across it, open-market purchases total zero transactions — none in the full record, none in the last year, and none in the last 90 days. Against that stand 582 sales totalling 3,246,761 shares and $954,009,508.69, by nine sellers, 432 of the 582 recorded as officer sales. The last year holds zero purchases against 276 sales of 1,409,740 shares for $346,781,927.44 by nine sellers, and the last 90 days hold 43 sales of 116,674 shares for $20,720,290.75 by four sellers, five of the 43 recorded as officer sales. Our site's insider aggregate, compiled as of October 11 over its 90-day window, records the same zero purchases but counts 29 sales totalling $19,129,364.39 — 14 transactions and $1,590,926.36 fewer than the full parse. We headline the full parse, print both figures in the methodology, and note that the two agree on the fact this lens is about: in the parsed record, no Coinbase insider has ever bought a share on the open market. We assign no motives to any of it; the record's shape is the fact — and the shape here is one-directional across the whole coverage, with an empty column on the other side.

Lens 5: Congress — one member, two purchases, two sales

Across the congressional record we maintain (combined record as of October 3, 2026), Coinbase shows one member, two purchase transactions and two sale transactions, with the most recent purchase dated July 17, 2026, and the member's party recorded as Democratic. The House aggregate (as of October 3, 2026) carries the same single member, the same two purchases, the same two sales and the same last-buy date; the Senate aggregate (as of October 1, 2026) carries no Coinbase row at all, so the combined record is entirely a House record. Congressional disclosures report value ranges rather than amounts, so this lens records direction and counts only; here it records a small, evenly split presence — the only lens in this audit where the tracked money both bought and sold.

Lens 6: short interest — 25,234,463 shares, up 82.7% in a year

FINRA's files carry the borrow across 130 settlements, from April 30, 2021. As of September 15, 2026 — the most recent settlement — 25,234,463 Coinbase shares were sold short, with days-to-cover of 2.78, down 7.83% from the prior settlement. Against the fundamentals file's 263,782,000 shares outstanding, that is 9.57% of the share count. The direction over the year is what makes this reading stand out: the latest reading is up 82.7% from 13,811,151 shares on September 15, 2025. Against the June 30, 2026 settlement reading of 24,859,937 shares — the same date the 13F lenses snapshot — the latest reading is up just 1.5%, so the year's build was already in place by the quarter-end the 13F lenses describe. The series maximum is 43,891,979 shares at the January 13, 2023 settlement, so the latest reading sits 42.5% below that peak. The series minimum is 1,547,906 shares on May 14, 2021, and the first settlement in the series, on April 30, 2021, printed 1,981,208 shares.

Short interest in Coinbase
Chart 2: Shares sold short in Coinbase at each FINRA biweekly settlement, Apr 30, 2021 – Sep 15, 2026 (n = 130 settlements). The series maximum, 43,891,979 shares on Jan 13, 2023, predates the current build. The latest reading, 25,234,463 shares on Sep 15, 2026, is 82.7% above the 13,811,151 shares recorded on Sep 15, 2025. Source: FINRA Equity Short Interest files; GetCoattail collection (coin_short_interest_series.csv).

The recent settlements run 25,046,921 on July 15, then 21,790,827, 22,918,131, 27,378,540 and 25,234,463 — a borrow holding near its year's high level rather than unwinding into the autumn. Set beside the price file, the geometry is the year's story in one line: the stock closed at $183.00 on October 2, down 19.1% year to date, while the borrow against it has grown by more than four-fifths over the same year.

The gap, stated plainly

The registers describe a stock the analyst community spent a week arguing about in a $131-wide band — targets from $149 to $280, a Hold consensus at $224.60, an October 29 earnings date ahead — months after its institutions had already moved, in narrower ways than the argument suggests. The tracked superinvestors held 462,016 shares at June 30 — one holder, Patient Capital Management, at 100.0% of it — having added 7.34% in a quarter when the price fell 16.3%. The full market moved the same way on shares and the other way on breadth: 1,125 filers, down 54, holding 144,697,310 reported shares, up 28,008,125. The 5% register printed ten filings, every one of them passive: a Vanguard Group row that went to zero under that name while a Vanguard Capital Management row printed 7.32%, a Jane Street parent row down from 6.8% to 2.5%, and not one 13D. Insiders, across 192 parsed filings, have recorded zero open-market purchases against $954,009,508.69 of sales by nine sellers, with $346,781,927.44 of that selling inside the last year. Congress registers one member who bought twice and sold twice. And the borrow, at 25,234,463 shares, stands 82.7% above where it stood a year ago. One plausible reading is that the registers run on different clocks and different mandates: a single tracked fund added into a falling quarter, the broad market concentrated into fewer filers holding more shares, no activist has filed on the name, its own insiders have never bought across the whole parsed record, and short sellers spent the year building a borrow the price decline alone does not explain. The record supports each clause separately; it does not say which register is right.

What would change the picture

Nothing above is a recommendation. It is a record. These are the filings that would change the description:

Until one of those prints, the record describes a stock held by one of our 83 tracked superinvestors — 462,016 shares, all of it one holder, increased 7.34% in a quarter the price fell 16.3% — whose full market added 28,008,125 reported shares across 54 fewer filers in the same quarter, whose 5% register is entirely passive paper headed by a founder's 13.91% row, whose insiders have bought zero shares across the parsed record against $954,009,508.69 of sales, whose congressional register is a single member split evenly between buying and selling, and whose borrow has grown 82.7% in a year.

Related reading: Two of 83: The Superinvestors Cut SanDisk 99.7% — to 768 Shares — in the Quarter It Rose 257.9% — Filing Tape #40; Seven of 83: One Holder Is 82.6% of the Superinvestors' McDonald's Stake. The Cohort Cut 24.8% in Q2. — Filing Tape #39; Zero of 83: The Superinvestors Aren't in IREN — Filing Tape #1. Coinbase's own page: Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) on GetCoattail.

Methodology and data notes

Past patterns are not a promise of future results. For education only — not investment advice.

This article describes public filings as of the dates stated. It is not investment advice and makes no recommendation. Filings lag reality: 13F positions are as of June 30, 2026, and later trading is not yet public.

Revision history

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