Three of 147: Oaktree Is 67.8% of the Tracked Expand Energy Stake, and the Verified Cohort Fell 0.4% in a Quarter When the Price Fell 16.9%

GetCoattail Research — The Filing Tape #126. Expand Energy surfaced on a trending-stocks screen this week listed as a Strong Buy with three Buy ratings and one Hold, and the filings describe a tracked register of just three names: 3 of the 147 superinvestors held the stock at June 30, 2026, totalling 7,724,874 shares, verified against the first quarter for a combined decrease of 0.4% among continuing holders, while four tracked managers exited entirely. Insiders have recorded purchases only — zero sales in the entire parsed record — Congress has no row at all, and short interest stands at 4.13% of the share count on a 47-settlement series.

The Hype

Expand Energy's attention this week is a screen story. The stock appeared on TipRanks' Trending Stocks by Analyst screener — SCHW and SMTC topped the page's order, followed by covered or skipped names including BAC, RKLB, BNY, BLK, ARWR, WCN and FANG — listed as a Strong Buy with a price target of $122.70 (31.36% upside as printed), 3 Buy, 1 Hold and 0 Sell ratings, a printed change of +5.26%, a market value of $21.62B as printed, in Energy, dated October 16, 2026. TipRanks Our price file shows the path behind the screen: the stock fell 16.9% in the second quarter, from $109.78 on March 31 to $91.19 on June 30, then fell further to $85.52 by October 2 — down 6.2% from the June 30 close, down 22.5% year to date, and 30.4% below the 252-session high of $122.89 (December 3, 2025).

The Tape

For Expand Energy — the one hundred and twenty-sixth Filing Tape audit — the tape shows three June holders easing 0.4% on a verified continuing basis with four exits beside them, a full market shedding filers while adding shares, an insider record with purchases and no sale at all, no Congress row, an all-passive 5% register, and a borrow that has risen since June on a short series.

Lens 1 — the superinvestors: three June holders, one at 67.8% of the stake, a verified cohort down 0.4%, and four exits. We track 149 managers whose 13F portfolios we collect from SEC EDGAR — 147 are in the collection (144 at a June 30 period-end, 3 early filers at September 30, none of them holding this name, so there is no period split) — and the June 30, 2026 register for the common stock (CUSIP 165167735) is 3 distinct managers holding 7,724,874 shares worth $704,431,259, long only, with no option rows and no debt rows: 1 is labelled UNCHANGED and 2 DECREASED, with no new holder. Howard Marks - Oaktree Capital Management is the largest: 5,237,477 shares worth $477,605,527 — 67.8% of the tracked stake — at a 6.63% portfolio weight, the register's largest, labelled UNCHANGED at 0.0% (filed August 14, 2026). The second holder, Disciplined Growth Investors, holds 2,346,927 shares (30.4%, DECREASED -1.1%, at a 3.62% weight), so the top two hold 98.2% — 7,584,404 shares — between them. The third is Tortoise Capital Advisors (140,470 shares, DECREASED -1.9%, at a 0.13% weight). The change verifies row by row under two register methods that agree exactly (methodology): the three continuing holders held 7,753,955 shares at March 31 and 7,724,874 at June 30 (-29,081 shares, -0.4%). Four tracked managers exited entirely — Slate Path Capital (133,555 shares in the first-quarter register), Energy Income Partners (76,381), Lee Ainslie - Maverick Capital (11,017) and First Eagle Investment Management (9,816), 230,769 shares in all. The pipeline register fell 3.3% (7,984,724 to 7,724,874 shares) — a different figure from the continuing cohort's -0.4%, differing only because the four exited positions sit in the first register alone. Every row implies $91.19, the June 30 close. 13F figures are as of June 30, 2026, published up to 45 days later.

Lens 2 — institutions: 36 fewer filers reporting 16.32% more shares. At June 30, 2026, 852 institutions reported positions, down 36 from 888 at March 31 (-4.05%); 847 are long. Reported shares rose 16.32%, from 187,674,807 to 218,308,187 (+30,633,380 shares), and reported value fell 3.27% to $20,012,268,825, labelled "reported" because the aggregate includes option rows (methodology). Flow counts agree: 766 entered, 802 exited, net -36, and the by-CUSIP row matches the by-ticker row on every field. The reported value implies $91.67 against a June 30 close of $91.19 (+0.53%).

Lens 3 — insiders: purchases only — zero sales in the entire parsed record. The parsed Form 4 record holds 51 filings through October 2, 2026, and it contains no sale transaction in any window: the 90-day window, the one-year window and the full record each hold 0 sales, 0 shares sold and 0 sellers. Purchases run the other way, and they are small. The last 90 days hold 0 purchases across 0 filings. The one-year window holds 7 purchases: 9,000 shares for $876,540, by 3 buyers, 6 of them officer purchase transactions, across 26 filings. The full record holds 10 purchases (16,000 shares, $1,549,260, 5 buyers, 9 officer purchase transactions). The purchases imply $97.39 per share over one year and $96.83 over the full record, each inside its window's close range on our price file — so the dollar totals are cited for both windows.

Lens 4 — Congress: no row in any aggregate. The combined record (as of October 3, 2026), the House aggregate (as of October 3, 2026) and the Senate aggregate (as of October 1, 2026) each carry no row for this name. That absence is itself the finding.

Lens 5 — the 5% register: 21 filings, every one of them passive, maximum 11.47%. Our full parse holds 21 SC 13D/G filings matching the site aggregate — 0 SC 13D family and 21 SC 13G family (5 SC 13G, 16 SC 13G/A); 16 amendments, 29 reporter names across 41 reporter rows. The maximum is 11.47%: The Vanguard Group printed 26,702,490 shares at 11.47% as of March 31, 2025 (filed April 7, 2025, SC 13G/A). The latest filing (filed August 7, 2026, SC 13G) prints STATE STREET CORPORATION at 15,631,873 shares and 6.5% as of June 30, 2026. BlackRock, Inc. printed 23,205,626 shares at 10.0% as of December 31, 2024 and 17,593,303 at 7.6% as of March 31, 2025. Capital Research Global Investors printed 15,959,335 shares at 6.7% as of September 30, 2025, 21,258,937 at 8.9% as of December 31, 2025 and 6,798,764 at 2.8% as of March 31, 2026. Vanguard Capital Management printed 17,930,392 shares at 7.45% as of March 31, 2026, while The Vanguard Group name separately printed 0 shares at 0.0% as of March 13, 2026. One Blackstone-family filing as of December 31, 2024 carries 16 reporter rows, most printing the same 10,300,102 shares at 4.5% — affiliated reporters on one position, never summed.

Lens 6 — short interest: a borrow up 24.3% since June, on a series only 47 settlements long. The latest FINRA settlement, September 15, 2026, records 9,563,805 shares sold short — 4.13% of the 231,503,789 shares outstanding — at 4.03 days to cover, up 13.81% from the prior settlement (8,403,425 on August 31, 2026). Against June 30, 2026 (7,692,940) the latest is up 24.3%, and against a year ago (7,883,488 on September 15, 2025) up 21.3%. The series maximum across its 47 settlements is 16,728,705 on November 15, 2024, so the latest sits 42.8% below that peak; the minimum is 5,659,806 on April 30, 2026. The series itself is short: it begins on October 15, 2024, at 11,615,031 shares, the first settlement recorded under the EXE symbol in our files. The recent path runs 7,692,940 (June 30), 8,471,551 (July 15), 8,615,910 (July 31), 8,406,229 (August 14), 8,403,425 (August 31) and 9,563,805 (September 15) — three rises and two falls. The series is published as collected.

The Gap

The narrative arriving this week is an analyst-consensus story: a Strong Buy trending listing, 3 Buy ratings against one Hold and no Sell, a printed target above the last close, on a stock that fell 16.9% in the second quarter and has since fallen a further 6.2%. The June tape is narrower than the listing. The tracked register is three holders and concentrated, with one holder at 67.8% and the top two at 98.2%; its verified continuing change is -0.4%, the largest holder is share-for-share unchanged, and four tracked managers left the register altogether. The broad market shed 36 filers even as reported shares rose 16.32%. The insider record cuts the other way from most audits in this series — purchases only, zero sales in the whole 51-filing record — but the purchases are small: $876,540 over the last year. Congress is absent entirely. The 5% register is entirely passive, its maximum print is from March 2025, and the borrow has risen 24.3% since June to 4.13% of the share count. One plausible reading is that the trending case rests on breadth the filings do not show: the tracked money is few, concentrated and flat, the insider buying is real but small, and one lens — Congress — is simply empty.

What Would Change the Picture

Nothing above is a recommendation. These filings would change it:

• 1. The 2026Q3 13F season (filing window closing mid-November 2026). All three continuing June holders verify, so the cohort's -0.4% is a clean baseline. Whether Oaktree's 5,237,477-share stake — 67.8% of the tracked total, unchanged share for share in Q2 — moves at all, and whether any new tracked holder replaces the four who exited, decides whether this lens stays at three names.

• 2. A first insider sale in the record, or a materially larger purchase. The record holds 0 sales in 51 filings — and 7 purchases in the last year totalling $876,540. A first recorded sale, or a purchase window well above that scale, would change this lens.
• 3. A first Congress row in any aggregate. All three aggregates carry no row. A first recorded transaction in any of them would change this lens from absent to present.

• 4. A first SC 13D filing, or a new 5% print above 11.47%. Every one of the 21 filings in this register is a 13G-family filing. A first activist-form filing, or any print above The Vanguard Group's 11.47% maximum, would change this lens.
• 5. Short interest back through the June 2026 level in either direction. The borrow stands at 9,563,805 shares, up 24.3% from June, at 4.13% of the share count. A reading back below the June 30, 2026 settlement of 7,692,940 would reverse the summer rise; a move toward the series maximum of 16,728,705 would extend it.

Related reading: Six of 147: Yacktman Is 53.2% of the Tracked Diamondback Stake, and the Verified Cohort Grew 4.2% in a Quarter When the Price Fell 11.1% — Filing Tape #125; Four of 147: One Holder Is 52.2% of the Tracked Waste Connections Stake, and the Verified Cohort Grew 5.5% in a Quarter When the Price Rose 2.6% — Filing Tape #124. Expand Energy's own page: Expand Energy (EXE) on GetCoattail.

Methodology and data notes

• As-of & limits: The lenses rest on different clocks, none live: 13F is a June 30, 2026 snapshot published up to 45 days later; Form 4 runs through October 2, 2026; Congress aggregates run through October 3, 2026 (Senate through October 1, 2026); 13D/G through August 7, 2026; short interest through September 15, 2026; the price file ends October 2, 2026. Six limits are specific to this audit. First, the roster expanded before the recent audits — from 85 managers (83 filing) to 149 (147 filing) — so "of 147" counts are not comparable to earlier pieces' "of 83" figures. Second, this name carries no period split: all three tracked holders sit on a June 30, 2026 period-end and none of the three September 30, 2026 early filers holds this name, so every tracked figure here is a single-date figure. Third, the full pipeline register moved faster than the continuing cohort: the register fell 3.3% (7,984,724 shares at March 31 to 7,724,874 at June 30) because it contains four first-quarter positions totalling 230,769 shares — Slate Path Capital, Energy Income Partners, Lee Ainslie - Maverick Capital and First Eagle Investment Management — that exited before the second register, while the verified continuing cohort fell 0.4%; both figures are stated wherever the cohort change is cited. Fourth, the Congress lens is empty in all three aggregates — an absence of a row, not a row of zeros — and it is reported as a finding, not omitted. Fifth, the site's insider aggregate carries no row at all for this name (methodology, Insider lens), while the full parse holds purchase activity in its one-year and full-record windows — the two are not the same statement, and this audit does not describe the site aggregate as matching the full parse for this name. Sixth, the short-interest series is short — 47 settlements beginning October 15, 2024, the first settlement under the EXE symbol in our files — and our price file begins June 1, 2021, before the EXE symbol period, so every price statement in this audit is mechanical, a date and a close from that file, with no claim tying prices from before the symbol period to the current name. The TipRanks screener listing (dated October 16, 2026 on the page for this name) postdates the 13F snapshot and the short-interest series; the listing is known to this audit only from outside coverage, not from our own files, and none of its price figures are cited here beyond the listing's own printed target and market value, which are reported as screen content in The Hype; every other price figure here is from our own price file.
• Superinvestor lens: 147 managers in the collection (of a 149-manager roster; 144 at a June 30, 2026 period-end and 3 early filers at September 30, 2026, none of them holding this name) collected directly from SEC EDGAR Form 13F (managers_13f collection, regenerated October 15, 2026 for the expanded roster); Expand Energy positions are counted on the common-stock CUSIP 165167735, long rows only. Three distinct managers hold a long position at June 30, 2026, totalling 7,724,874 shares worth $704,431,259, with a direction count of 1 UNCHANGED and 2 DECREASED, no new holder, no option rows, and four exited managers (Slate Path Capital 133,555 first-quarter shares, Energy Income Partners 76,381, Lee Ainslie - Maverick Capital 11,017 and First Eagle Investment Management 9,816 — 230,769 shares in all). Howard Marks - Oaktree Capital Management's share of the stake is 67.8% = 5,237,477 / 7,724,874, at a 6.63% portfolio weight; Disciplined Growth Investors' is 30.4% = 2,346,927 / 7,724,874, and the top two together are 98.2% = 7,584,404 / 7,724,874. All three continuing holders verify row by row against the first quarter under two independent methods that agree exactly. Under the rule used in the previous audits — a holder's first-quarter row accepted only when its implied shares-change reproduces the EDGAR shares-change label at one decimal place — the verified continuing total is 7,753,955 shares at March 31 moving to 7,724,874 at June 30 (-0.4%): Howard Marks - Oaktree Capital Management 5,237,477 → 5,237,477 (0.0%), Disciplined Growth Investors 2,373,302 → 2,346,927 (-1.1%), Tortoise Capital Advisors 143,176 → 140,470 (-1.9%). Because two recent audits found the generic accession-prefix method failing on shared filing-agent prefixes, the check was also rerun identifying filings by accession (filing total equal to the manager's collection total, unique) and pairing second- and first-quarter filings of the same manager by maximum CUSIP-set overlap under the same agent prefix (Howard Marks - Oaktree Capital Management overlap 104 CUSIPs, Disciplined Growth Investors 55, Tortoise Capital Advisors 82 — each uniquely the maximum); the corrected method returns the identical first-quarter rows, so no correction changes any figure here. The pipeline register then reconciles in both quarters (first quarter: 7 rows and 7,984,724 shares = the verified continuing total of 7,753,955 plus the four exited positions of 230,769; second quarter: 3 rows and 7,724,874 shares = the continuing total, with no new holder — so the register change of -3.3% differs from the continuing cohort's -0.4% only because of the four exits). Implied per-share value: every long row implies $91.19, the June 30, 2026 close, so the cohort implied price is $91.19, 0.0% against the close. The remaining holder is Tortoise Capital Advisors (140,470 shares, $12,809,459, 0.13% weight, DECREASED -1.9%, filed August 14, 2026); Disciplined Growth Investors filed August 14, 2026 and Howard Marks - Oaktree Capital Management filed August 14, 2026.
• Full-market lens: SEC Form 13F Data Sets full-market aggregation. The primary table is the full13f collection's by-ticker file (holders = distinct filers reporting the ticker's CUSIP; 847 reported long positions out of 852 filers). Expand Energy carries a single CUSIP in this aggregation (165167735), and the backfill fixtures' by-CUSIP row matches the by-ticker row exactly on every field — holders (852), long holders (847), shares (218,308,187), reported value ($20,012,268,825), prior holders (888) and prior reported value ($20,688,661,442). The by-ticker file's entered/exited fields (766 and 802, a net of -36 that matches the change in holder count) are gross flows, so this audit headlines the net change. Reported-value caution: the aggregate value ($20,012,268,825 over 218,308,187 shares) implies $91.67 per share against a June 30, 2026 close of $91.19 in our price file, a gap of +0.53%. The aggregate sums the VALUE of every information-table row — including put and call option rows — while the share count covers long common-stock rows only, so we headline filer and share counts and label dollar values "reported."
• Insider lens: full-parse Form 4 aggregation (agg_by_ticker), record as of October 2, 2026 (51 filings). Sale and purchase counts are transaction-code counts (S and P) in non-derivative rows; grants and exercises are not counted as purchases, and one filing can contain many transaction rows. The 90-day window (July 5 to October 2, 2026) holds 0 purchase transactions and 0 sale transactions across 0 filings. The one-year window (October 3, 2025 to October 2, 2026) holds 7 purchase transactions (9,000 shares, $876,540, 3 buyers, 6 officer purchase transactions) and 0 sales across 26 filings, and the full record holds 10 purchase transactions (16,000 shares, $1,549,260, 5 buyers, 9 officer purchase transactions) and 0 sales. The site's insider aggregate (90-day window, as of October 19, 2026) carries no row at all for this name, so there is no site figure to compare with the full parse's 90-day window: the full parse's 90-day window is itself all zeros, but an absent row is not a matching row, and this audit states the position exactly that way — the site aggregate is silent on this name while the full parse records purchase activity in its wider windows. Window price checks on our price file: the purchases imply $97.39 per share over one year, inside its close range ($84.09 to $122.89), and $96.83 over the full record, inside its full-period range ($48.90 to $122.89) — so dollar totals are cited for both purchase windows; there is no sale implied price in any window, because there are no sales.
• 13D/G lens: full-parse SC 13D/G parsed filings (21 filings matching issuer CIK 895126 on CUSIP 165167735: 0 SC 13D family filings and 21 SC 13G family filings — 5 SC 13G and 16 SC 13G/A, 16 of the 21 amendments), filings through August 7, 2026. The site aggregation carries this name under a ticker-keyed row; that row (21 filings, 0 D-filings, 21 G-filings, 16 amendments, 29 reporters, latest date August 7, 2026, maximum 11.47%, total reported 439,625,306 shares) matches the parsed filings on filings, form mix, amendments, latest date, maximum and the cross-date reported total. The total sums reporter rows across filings and dates, so it is a filing-volume total, not a stake; joint reporters printing the same position (the 16 Blackstone-family reporter rows on the filing as of December 31, 2024, most printing 10,300,102 shares at 4.5%) are reported exactly as they appear in each file and are never summed. The maximum of 11.47% is The Vanguard Group's print of 26,702,490 shares as of March 31, 2025 (filed April 7, 2025, SC 13G/A). The latest filing (filed August 7, 2026, SC 13G) is STATE STREET CORPORATION at 15,631,873 shares and 6.5% as of June 30, 2026; STATE STREET CORPORATION also printed 12,290,221 shares at 5.3% as of March 31, 2025 (filed May 13, 2025, SC 13G). The other prints stated in the text are BlackRock, Inc. at 23,205,626 shares and 10.0% as of December 31, 2024 (filed January 8, 2025, SC 13G) and 17,593,303 shares at 7.6% as of March 31, 2025 (filed April 17, 2025, SC 13G/A); Capital Research Global Investors at 15,959,335 shares and 6.7% as of September 30, 2025 (filed November 13, 2025, SC 13G), 21,258,937 shares at 8.9% as of December 31, 2025 (filed February 12, 2026, SC 13G/A) and 6,798,764 shares at 2.8% as of March 31, 2026 (filed May 14, 2026, SC 13G/A); Vanguard Capital Management at 17,930,392 shares and 7.45% as of March 31, 2026 (filed April 29, 2026, SC 13G); and The Vanguard Group at 0 shares and 0.0% as of March 13, 2026 (filed March 26, 2026, SC 13G/A). The parsed coverage for this issuer holds these 21 filings; a 5% holder that has not filed in the covered window would not appear here.
• Congress lens: Senate PTR archive and House PTR archive as maintained on this site. The combined record (as of October 3, 2026) carries no row for this name; the House aggregate (as of October 3, 2026) carries no row; the Senate aggregate (as of October 1, 2026) carries no row. No member count, transaction count or date can be stated for this lens, because the aggregates hold no entry at all — the lens is reported as "None" in the summary table and in the text, as this series requires for an absent lens.
• Short interest lens: FINRA Equity Short Interest files (biweekly settlement dates), collected directly from FINRA's public distribution. The series is every row under symbol EXE (market class NNM on all 47 rows), and the issuer-name field appears in a single spelling — "Expand Energy Corporation Comm" on all 47 rows — covering 47 settlements from October 15, 2024 (11,615,031 shares) to September 15, 2026, with all 47 settlement dates distinct. October 15, 2024 is the first settlement recorded under the EXE symbol in our files, so the series is reported at that length; no earlier settlement under this symbol exists in the collection to extend it. The latest reading is 9,563,805 shares on September 15, 2026, up 13.81% from the prior settlement (8,403,425 on August 31, 2026), up 24.3% from the June 30, 2026 settlement of 7,692,940 and up 21.3% from the year-ago settlement of 7,883,488 on September 15, 2025, at 4.03 days to cover. The series maximum is 16,728,705 on November 15, 2024 and the series minimum is 5,659,806 on April 30, 2026. Series discontinuity check — none: no single-settlement step in the series reaches 2 times (the largest step is 1.291x, on October 31, 2024) and none falls to 0.5 times or below (the smallest step is 0.715x, on April 15, 2025), and our own daily price file holds no single-day move of 1.5 times or more, or 0.6 times or less, anywhere in its history. No row in the series carries a FINRA flag — no stock-split flag and no revision flag on any of the 47 rows. The full series is published as collected, with no smoothing or rebasing. The recent path runs 7,692,940 (June 30), 8,471,551 (July 15), 8,615,910 (July 31), 8,406,229 (August 14), 8,403,425 (August 31) and 9,563,805 (September 15). FINRA publishes each settlement about two weeks after the fact, so the October price action is not yet in this series. The share-count ratio (4.13%) uses the fundamentals file's shares-outstanding figure below.
• Fundamentals note: our fundamentals collection carries Expand Energy's revenue of $12,124,000,000, net income of $1,819,000,000 and assets of $28,287,000,000, all three sourced to the financial-series cache and all labelled fiscal 2025, so this name carries no fiscal-vintage split. The file is marked ok for this name, with no missing fields: shares outstanding of 231,503,789 (sourced in the file to the DEI entity-common-stock shares-outstanding count, with a shares-end date of July 24, 2026) and a file-computed market value of $20,425,580,080.61. The file does not flag the issuer as a foreign private issuer, and it carries SIC 1311, Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas, and a Nasdaq listing — the exchange is stated here as the file records it. The file's price for the name is $88.23 as of October 6, 2026; our daily-close file ends October 2, 2026 at $85.52, and we keep the two files' figures separate rather than blending them.
• Prices: our own daily-close file for EXE through October 2, 2026 ($85.52 close, -22.5% year to date on that file; the 252-session closing high is $122.89 on December 3, 2025, so the last close sits 30.4% below it; the 252-session closing low is $84.09 on September 30, 2026, so the last close sits 1.7% above it; closes of $109.78 at March 31, 2026 and $91.19 at June 30, 2026, a second-quarter change of -16.9%; change from June 30 to October 2 of -6.2%; change from the September 30, 2025 close of $106.24 of -19.5%). The series in our price file begins June 1, 2021 at $54.88 and holds 1,342 rows; it predates the EXE symbol period, so the figures above are stated as dates and closes from the file and nothing more.
• Market context sources: the TipRanks Trending Stocks by Analyst screener (full-page crawl, October 19, 2026), on which Expand Energy followed SCHW and SMTC at the top of the page's order, covered names (BAC, RKLB, JBHT, BNY, BLK, ARWR, WCN, JPM, WFC and FANG among them) and skipped names (TSM, IBKR, PNC, EADSF, TTE, FHN, ARBFF and ACN, skipped as recorded in earlier runs; PILBF and WING, skipped as recorded in the selection notes), and was listed as a Strong Buy with a price target of $122.70 (31.36% upside as printed), 3 Buy, 1 Hold and 0 Sell ratings, a printed change of +5.26%, a market value of $21.62B as printed, in Energy, dated October 16, 2026 on the page. Figures we could not confirm were left out; the external items above are reported speech from that outlet, not GetCoattail measurements, and none of its price figures are cited in this audit beyond the screener's printed target and market value as reported in The Hype.
• Expand Energy is in the GetCoattail stock-page universe: Expand Energy (EXE) stock page. Series data: exe_lens_data.csv · exe_short_interest_series.csv. Earlier audits: Diamondback Energy · Waste Connections.

Past patterns are not a promise of future results. For education only — not investment advice.

This article describes public filings as of the dates stated. It is not investment advice and makes no recommendation. Filings lag reality: 13F positions are as of June 30, 2026, and later trading is not yet public.

Revision history: v1.0 — October 19, 2026: first publication.