Seven of 83: Four Superinvestors Raised Progressive in Q2. Its Insiders Have Never Bought a Share.

GetCoattail Research — The Filing Tape #81. Progressive fell sharply on October 14 after its third-quarter numbers missed, and the filings describe a tracked cohort that raised its stake in Q2, a full market that added 53.0 million shares, an insider record with zero purchases of any kind, a House-only congressional record, a 5% register of entirely passive filings peaking at 9.0%, and a borrow 45.0% below its 2021 peak.

The Hype

Progressive reported its third quarter on October 14, and the market's answer was immediate. Barchart's movers summary put the shares down more than 9% — the largest fall in the S&P 500 in that summary — after net premiums written of $22.30 billion came in below the $22.50 billion consensus it cited; Dow Jones, carried by Morningstar, had the shares down 6% intraday to $209.34, with net income down 3% to $2.54 billion against a $2.56 billion FactSet projection. The company's own release put net premiums written at $22,301 million, up 4% year over year, net premiums earned at $21,869 million, up 5%, net income at $2,542 million, down 3%, and earnings of $4.37 per share against $4.45 a year earlier. In our daily-close file, which ends October 2, the stock had already been drifting: the last close, $210.31, sits 14.4% below the 252-session closing high and 7.6% below where the year began. The filings below ask a prior question: who held the stock before the miss was printed.

The Tape

For Progressive — the eighty-first Filing Tape audit — the tape shows a seven-name tracked cohort that added shares in the second quarter as the full market added 53,000,874 shares, an insider record with no purchase transaction of any kind against 71 sales, a congressional record that exists only in the House, a 5% register of entirely passive filings peaking at 9.0%, and a borrow 45.0% below its series maximum.

Lens 1 — the superinvestors: seven holders, and four of them added. We track 83 large, mostly long-only managers whose 13F portfolios we collect directly from SEC EDGAR. As of June 30, 2026, 7 held Progressive long, totalling 1,548,909 shares worth $338,359,191, with no option rows — every row on the single CUSIP. Thomas Gayner - Markel Group is the largest holder, with 753,750 shares worth $164,656,689 — 48.7% of the cohort's position — at a 1.25% weight, labelled UNCHANGED. Behind it, Francois Rochon - Giverny Capital holds 542,292 shares worth $118,463,687 at a 3.98% weight. Four holders raised their share counts — Ariel Investments by 5,732.3% to 58,906 shares, Wedgewood Partners by 27.5% to 106,261 shares, Fairholme Capital by 8.7% to 72,200 shares and Giverny by 2.6% — three stood still, none cut, none exited and none is new. On a holder-by-holder match, the cohort's total rose from 1,448,376 shares at March 31 to 1,548,909 at June 30, up 100,533 shares (+6.94%) — the sum of the four raises. The implied price, $218.45, sits exactly on the June 30 close. 13F figures are as of June 30, 2026; funds have up to 45 days to file, so this picture is complete — and always lagging.

Lens 2 — institutions: 79 more filers, 53.0 million more shares. At June 30, 2026, 1,825 institutions reported positions, up 79 from 1,746 at March 31 (+4.52%), 1,816 of them long. Reported shares rose 11.68%, from 453,783,517 to 506,784,391 shares. Reported value rose 25.49% to $109,580,102,641; the aggregate includes option rows, so we headline filer and share counts and label dollars "reported" (see methodology). The name reports under a single CUSIP, and the by-CUSIP row matches the by-ticker totals exactly. Market and cohort moved the same way this quarter — both added — at very different scales: 53,000,874 shares against the cohort's 100,533.

Lens 3 — insiders: no purchase transaction in the entire parsed record. The parsed Form 4 record holds 324 filings through October 2, 2026, and zero purchase transactions — in the last 90 days, in the last year, and across the full record. That is not an officer-only statement: no insider of any kind records an open-market purchase anywhere in the parse. The 90-day window holds 10 sale transactions totalling 107,938 shares and $23,202,508.60, by 7 sellers, all 10 of them officer sales. Across the last year the record holds 26 sales totalling 144,868.68 shares and $31,027,834.74, by 12 sellers, 24 of the 26 officer sales; across the full record, 71 sales totalling 401,369.68 shares and $96,013,191.88, by 16 sellers, 65 of the 71 officer sales. We assign no motives; this is a register of sales with an empty purchase column.

Lens 4 — Congress: a House record, and no Senate record. The combined record (as of October 3, 2026) carries Progressive under 2 members, with 2 purchase transactions and 1 sale transaction, the last reported purchase dated June 16, 2026, and members from both parties. The House aggregate carries the identical record — every combined-file transaction for this name is a House transaction. The Senate aggregate (as of October 1, 2026) carries no Progressive row at all. This lens is therefore neither full nor empty: a three-transaction House record with a blank Senate column.

Lens 5 — the 5% register: four filings, all passive, three reporting names. Our full parse holds exactly 4 SC 13D/G filings — one SC 13G and three SC 13G/A amendments, with no SC 13D-family filing at all — 4 reporting-person rows across 3 names, most recently filed April 30, 2026, matching the site aggregate's ticker-keyed row on every headline field. The register's maximum is BlackRock, Inc. reporting 52,606,862 shares (9.0%) as of December 31, 2024; the same name later prints 42,063,844 shares (7.2%) as of June 30, 2025. The remaining rows are reported exactly as filed: The Vanguard Group prints 0 shares (0.0%) as of March 13, 2026, and Vanguard Capital Management prints 44,078,585 shares (7.53%) as of March 31, 2026. There is no activist filer in this register.

Lens 6 — short interest: 6,263,238 shares, less than half the 2021 peak. As of September 15, 2026 — the most recent of 137 FINRA settlements since January 15, 2021 — 6,263,238 shares were sold short, up 3.7% from the prior settlement. The series maximum, 11,385,241 shares on September 15, 2021 — verified by a maximum query over the whole series — leaves the latest 45.0% below it. The last five settlements read 9,609,478, 8,075,469, 5,979,782, 6,039,944 and 6,263,238 — most of the step down came between July 31 and August 14. Against the year-ago 6,822,668 shares the latest is down 8.2%; against the June 30, 2026 settlement of 7,791,620 it is down 19.6%. Against 581,371,770 shares outstanding, it is 1.08% of the share count, at 3.39 days to cover.

The Gap

The narrative, as the earnings coverage frames it, is a miss: premiums written of $22.30 billion against a $22.50 billion consensus, net income down 3%, and a stock that fell more than 9% in Barchart's movers summary — the S&P 500's largest fall there — on October 14. The filings describe who held the stock before the miss, and on the ownership side the record is unusually one-directional. In the second quarter the full market held 506,784,391 reported shares, up 53,000,874 shares (+11.68%), as its filer count rose by 79 to 1,825. The tracked cohort added too — up 100,533 shares (+6.94%) to 1,548,909, with four raises, three unchanged positions, no cuts, no exits and no new names — and its largest holder, Markel Group at 48.7% of the cohort, did not move at all. The 5% register holds no activist — passive filings whose maximum, 9.0%, dates to December 31, 2024. Against that accumulation, the insider column is empty in the other direction: no purchase of any kind in 324 parsed filings, against 71 sales, and $23,202,508.60 sold in the last 90 days alone. Congress sits between the two pictures — a small House record of 2 purchases and 1 sale, and no Senate record. The borrow, at 6,263,238 shares and 1.08% of the share count, is less than half its September 2021 peak. One plausible reading is that institutions spent the second quarter adding a stock its own insiders have never once bought in the parsed record — the quarter before an earnings miss, not after one. The record supports each clause separately; it does not say which side the next quarter favours.

What Would Change the Picture

Nothing above is a recommendation. It is a record. These filings would change the description:

• 1. The 2026Q3 13Fs (filing window closing mid-November 2026). The cohort held 1,548,909 shares at June 30 after adding 100,533 in the quarter, with four raises and no cuts. Whether the raisers hold after the October miss — and whether Markel Group's unchanged 753,750 shares finally move — decides whether the accumulation reads as a stance or a coincidence of timing.
• 2. A first purchase — the record currently has none. The parsed record holds zero purchases across 324 filings, in every window. A single open-market purchase breaks a register whose purchase column is currently empty.
• 3. A fresh 5% print, or any SC 13D at all. The register's latest filing is dated April 30, 2026 and reports 7.53% as of March 31, 2026; its maximum, BlackRock, Inc.'s 9.0%, is as of December 31, 2024, and every filing is passive. An activist 13D would be this lens's first.
• 4. Whether the borrow rebuilds from its August step-down, or fades toward its low. Short interest stands at 6,263,238 shares after falling from 9,609,478 in mid-July to 5,979,782 by mid-August. A reading back above the June 30 print of 7,791,620 extends a rebuild; below the series minimum of 2,273,886 sets a new low.
• 5. A first Senate record of any kind. The Senate aggregate carries no row for this name, while the House record holds 2 purchases and 1 sale by 2 members. A single Senate purchase or sale gives this lens its missing half.

As-of & Limits

The lenses rest on different clocks, none live: 13F is a June 30, 2026 snapshot published up to 45 days later; Form 4 runs through October 2, 2026; Congress through October 3, 2026 (Senate through October 1, 2026); 13D/G through the April 30, 2026 filing; short interest through September 15, 2026; our price file ends October 2, 2026. Two limits are specific to this name. First, the October 14 earnings report — the reason for the search interest — postdates every lens here, and the earnings-day move is known to this audit only from outside coverage, not from our own price file, so nothing in the tape yet reflects positioning after it. Second, the congressional lens is split by chamber: the record is House-only, and the Senate side is an absence in the aggregate rather than a zero we estimated.

Related reading: One of 83: Maverick Opened the Superinvestors' Only NetApp Position in Q2. No Officer Has Ever Bought a Share. — Filing Tape #80; Three of 83: Ariel Is 90.2% of the Superinvestors' Hewlett Packard Enterprise Stake. Its Insiders Have Never Bought a Share. — Filing Tape #79; Six of 83: ValueAct Is 67.0% of the Superinvestors' BlackRock Stake. Its Insiders Have Never Bought a Share. — Filing Tape #78. Progressive's own page: Progressive (PGR) on GetCoattail.

Methodology and data notes

• Superinvestor lens: 83 managers collected directly from SEC EDGAR Form 13F (managers_13f collection), positions as of June 30, 2026; Progressive identified by its single CUSIP 743315103. Seven distinct managers hold long positions totalling 1,548,909 shares; there are no option rows for this name in the collection. The direction count on the collection's labels, across the long rows, is four INCREASED (John Rogers - Ariel Investments, David Rolfe - Wedgewood Partners, Bruce Berkowitz - Fairholme Capital, Francois Rochon - Giverny Capital) and three UNCHANGED (Thomas Gayner - Markel Group, Tweedy Browne, Glenn Greenberg - Brave Warrior Advisors); the collection's exit list carries no Progressive row. Thomas Gayner - Markel Group's share of the cohort is 48.7% = 753,750 / 1,548,909. Quarter-to-quarter cohort totals require care in this audit: the site pipeline's holdings files now cover 147 accessions (an expanded roster), so their CUSIP totals — 13,278,569 shares in 12 rows at March 31 and 10,812,772 shares in 12 rows at June 30, a change of −18.57% — are not the 83-manager cohort; the second-quarter file carries five rows outside the EDGAR collection totalling 9,263,863 shares. The cohort comparison printed in this audit (1,448,376 long shares at March 31; 1,548,909 long shares at June 30, a change of +100,533 shares, +6.94%) is built manager by manager: each cohort manager's pipeline row was matched by the manager's EDGAR total portfolio value, and for six of the seven holders the matched first-quarter row reproduces the EDGAR label's shares-change percentage exactly. The seventh, Tweedy Browne, files through an agent prefix (0001193125) that other filers also use: the first-quarter file holds two rows under that prefix for this CUSIP — 13,711 shares (accession 0001193125-26-208439) and 498,500 shares (accession 0001193125-26-226587) — and this audit uses the 13,711-share row, the one consistent with Tweedy Browne's UNCHANGED label and with its identified second-quarter accession (0001193125-26-340443, also 13,711 shares). Using the 498,500-share row instead would put the cohort's first-quarter total at 1,933,165 shares and is not supported by the label.
• Full-market lens: SEC Form 13F Data Sets full-market aggregation. The primary table is the full13f collection's by-ticker file (holders = distinct filers reporting the CUSIP; 1,816 reported long positions out of 1,825 filers). Progressive reports under a single CUSIP, 743315103, and the backfill fixtures' by-CUSIP row matches the by-ticker row exactly on holders, long holders, shares, reported value, prior holders and prior value. The by-ticker file's entered/exited fields (1,447 and 1,368, a net of +79 that matches the change in holder count) are gross flows, so this audit headlines the net change. Reported-value caution: the aggregate value ($109,580,102,641 over 506,784,391 shares) implies $216.23 per share against a June 30, 2026 close of $218.45 in our price file, a gap of −1.0% — printed here as found. The aggregate sums the VALUE of every information-table row — including put and call option rows — while the share count covers long common-stock rows only, so we headline filer and share counts and label dollar values "reported."
• Insider lens: full-parse Form 4 aggregation (agg_by_ticker), record as of October 2, 2026 (324 filings). Sale and purchase counts are transaction-code counts (S and P) in non-derivative rows; grants and exercises are not counted as purchases, and one filing can contain many transaction rows. Purchase transactions total zero in the full parsed record — zero in the 90-day window (July 5 to October 2, 2026), zero in the one-year window and zero across the record; officer purchase transactions are likewise zero in every window. Sale transactions total 10 in the last 90 days (107,938 shares, $23,202,508.60, 7 sellers, all 10 of them officer sales), 26 in the last year (144,868.68 shares, $31,027,834.74, 12 sellers, 24 of the 26 officer sales) and 71 across the parsed record (401,369.68 shares, $96,013,191.88, 16 sellers, 65 of the 71 officer sales). The site's insider aggregate (compiled as of October 14, 2026, over its own 90-day window) reports 0 purchases, 10 sales and 7 sellers with $23,202,508.60 of sale value — exactly matching the full parse's 90-day window on every figure. The full-parse aggregate's sale-value totals imply $214.96 per share for the 90-day window, $214.18 for the one-year window and $239.21 for the full record, each inside the traded price range of its window on our price file ($202.17 to $234.48 for the 90-day window, $190.40 to $245.70 for the one-year window, and $90.01 to $291.22 across the price file), so the totals are cited as figures in this article. "Its insiders have never bought" in this audit means zero purchase transactions in the parsed Form 4 record we maintain; it is a statement about that record, not about any individual's complete history.
• 13D/G lens: full-parse SC 13D/G parsed filings (4 filings matching issuer CIK 80661 on CUSIP 743315103: one SC 13G and three SC 13G/A filings, the latter amendments, with no SC 13D-family filing), filings through April 30, 2026. The site aggregation carries this name under a ticker-keyed row; that row (4 filings, 0 D-filings, 4 G-filings, 3 amendments, 3 reporters, latest date April 30, 2026, maximum 9.0% and 138,749,291.0 reported shares) matches the parsed filings on filings, form mix, amendments, latest date, maximum and reported-share total. The parsed reporting-person rows sum to 138,749,291.0 shares, but that total sums reporting-person rows across different dates, so it is not used as a stake figure in the article. The rows are reported as filed, under the names exactly as they appear: BlackRock, Inc. printing 52,606,862 shares at 9.0% as of December 31, 2024, filed February 5, 2025 as SC 13G/A, and 42,063,844 shares at 7.2% as of June 30, 2025, filed July 17, 2025 as SC 13G/A; The Vanguard Group printing 0 shares at 0.0% as of March 13, 2026, filed March 27, 2026 as SC 13G/A; and Vanguard Capital Management printing 44,078,585 shares at 7.53% as of March 31, 2026, filed April 30, 2026 as SC 13G. The two Vanguard reporting names are separate rows as filed and are not combined in this audit. The parsed coverage for this issuer holds these 4 filings; a 5% holder that has not filed in the covered window would not appear here.
• Congress lens: Senate PTR archive and House PTR archive as maintained on this site. The combined record (as of October 3, 2026) carries Progressive under 2 members with 2 purchase transactions and 1 sale transaction, the last reported purchase dated June 16, 2026, and members from both parties. The House aggregate (as of October 3, 2026) carries the identical figures, so every transaction in the combined record for this name is a House transaction. The Senate aggregate (as of October 1, 2026) has no Progressive row. This audit reports the chamber split exactly as the aggregates stand and does not fill either side with figures from outside those collections.
• Short interest lens: FINRA Equity Short Interest files (biweekly settlement dates), collected directly from FINRA's public distribution. The published series covers 137 settlements from January 15, 2021 (first settlement in the series, 4,995,905 shares) to September 15, 2026. The latest reading is 6,263,238 shares on September 15, 2026, up 3.7% from the prior settlement (6,039,944 on August 31, 2026). The series maximum is 11,385,241 shares on September 15, 2021 (verified by a maximum query over the series, not read off the latest row), so the latest reading sits 45.0% below the maximum. The year-ago settlement (September 15, 2025) printed 6,822,668 shares, so the latest reading sits 8.2% below a year ago. The series minimum is 2,273,886 shares on December 30, 2022. The June 30, 2026 settlement printed 7,791,620 shares, so the latest reading sits 19.6% below the 13F snapshot date's borrow. FINRA publishes each settlement about two weeks after the fact, so the October price action is not yet in this series. The share-count ratio (1.08%) uses the fundamentals file's shares-outstanding figure below.
• Fundamentals note: our fundamentals collection carries Progressive's revenue of $87,671,000,000, net income of $11,308,000,000 and assets of $123,039,000,000, each labelled fiscal 2025 in the file. The file is marked ok for this name, with no missing fields: shares outstanding of 581,371,770 (as of July 2, 2026 in the file, sourced in the file to the share count) and a file-computed market value of $123,279,885,602.71. The file does not flag the issuer as a foreign private issuer, and it carries SIC 6331, Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance. The file's price for the name is $212.05 as of October 6, 2026; our daily-close file ends October 2, 2026 at $210.31, and we keep the two files' figures separate rather than blending them.
• Prices: our own daily-close file for Progressive through October 2, 2026 ($210.31 close, −7.6% year to date on that file; 252-session closing high $245.70 on October 3, 2025, so the last close sits 14.4% below it; 252-session closing low $190.40 on May 29, 2026, so the last close sits 10.5% above it; closes of $198.24 at March 31, 2026 and $218.45 at June 30, 2026, a second-quarter change of +10.2%; change from June 30 to October 2 of −3.7%; change from the September 30, 2025 close of $246.95 of −14.8%). The series in our price file begins June 1, 2021 at $99.31 and holds 1,342 rows.
• Market context sources: Google Trends United States mirror (checked October 15, 2026; the mirror's top ten entries were non-stock topics, so the selection moved to the next sources); Barchart's October 14 movers summary (checked October 15, 2026; it put Progressive down more than 9%, the largest fall in the S&P 500 in that summary, after third-quarter net premiums written of $22.30 billion came in below the $22.50 billion consensus it cited); Progressive's own October 14 release, carried by GlobeNewswire (checked October 15, 2026; third-quarter net premiums written $22,301 million, up 4%, net premiums earned $21,869 million, up 5%, net income $2,542 million, down 3%, earnings per share $4.37 against $4.45 a year earlier); Dow Jones coverage carried by Morningstar (checked October 15, 2026; shares down 6% intraday to $209.34, net income of $2.54 billion below the $2.56 billion FactSet projection, earnings per share of $4.37 below the $4.42 projection it cited); Everhint's October 14 morning update (checked October 15, 2026; its focus list carried Progressive among the session's movers on the same results). Figures we could not confirm against two sources were left out; the external items above are reported speech from those outlets, not GetCoattail measurements.
• Progressive is in the GetCoattail stock-page universe: Progressive (PGR) stock page. Series data: pgr_lens_data.csv · pgr_short_interest_series.csv. Earlier audits: NetApp · Hewlett Packard Enterprise.

Past patterns are not a promise of future results. For education only — not investment advice.

This article describes public filings as of the dates stated. It is not investment advice and makes no recommendation. Filings lag reality: 13F positions are as of June 30, 2026, and later trading is not yet public.

Revision history

• v1.0 — October 15, 2026: first publication.