RESEARCH — THE FILING TAPE #70

Three of 83: One Holder Is 89.7% of the Superinvestors' Lowe's Stake. Its Insiders Have Bought Once.

October 14, 2026

GetCoattail Research — The Filing Tape #70. Lowe's closed at its 252-session low on October 2, down 25.0% for the year. The filings describe a thin register at the top: three tracked superinvestors holding 838,492 shares, 89.7% of them in one name that raised its position in the second quarter, a broad market that added 61.2 million shares underneath, an insider record with one purchase in 119 filings, and a borrow 43.7% below its 2022 peak.

The Hype

Lowe's is the second name on MarketBeat's home-improvement watch list for October 13, behind Home Depot, under a headline noting both retailers have hit 52-week lows while analysts have not given up on them. The split showed up in the last print. For the fiscal second quarter ended July 31, 2026, reported August 19, Lowe's posted sales of $26.0 billion, up 8.3% from a year earlier, with diluted earnings of $4.27 per share and adjusted earnings of $4.40, ahead of the $4.22 consensus. Comparable sales rose just 0.2% — online sales grew 15.7% while discretionary DIY demand stayed pressured — and management moved the full-year outlook to the low end of its prior ranges. Analysts entered October leaning positive on average but cutting at the edges: MarketBeat's October 6 consensus was a moderate buy from 36 analysts with an average target of $255.97, while Evercore ISI cut its target from $220 to $190 on October 6 and Gordon Haskett cut from $240 to $200 in September. On our daily-close file the stock fell 6.7% in the second quarter, from $236.28 at March 31 to $220.49 at June 30, then slid to $180.80 by October 2 — the lowest close of the last 252 sessions, down 37.1% from the $287.39 closing high of February 13, 2026, and down 25.0% year to date. The next print is the November 18 third-quarter call. The question the filings answer is who was holding the stock while it fell.

The Tape

For Lowe's — the seventieth Filing Tape audit — the tape shows a three-name cohort dominated by one holder, a full market adding shares as its filer count slipped, an insider record with a single purchase, three congressional sales, a passive 5% register topped at 10.02%, and a borrow well below its peak.

LensAs ofWhat the filings showDirection vs prior period
Superinvestors (13F)Jun 30, 20263 long holders; 838,492 shares; $184,879,097Shares +3.47% vs Q1; 2 raised, 1 cut
All institutions (13F)Jun 30, 20262,655 filers; 439,580,996 sharesFilers -6; shares +16.17%
Insiders (Form 4)Oct 2, 20261 purchase in the entire parsed record; 19 salesLast 90 days: 0 purchases, 0 sales
CongressOct 3, 20263 recorded sale transactions; 0 purchasesHouse 2 sales; Senate 1 sale
13D/GMay 6, 20265 parsed filings, all SC 13G; register maximum 10.02% (The Vanguard Group)Vanguard chain prints a zero row; no filing since May 2026
Short interest (FINRA)Sep 15, 20269,399,130 shares; 1.68% of shares outstanding-43.7% vs series peak; -0.8% vs a year ago

Lens 1 — the superinvestors: three holders, one of them 89.7% of the position. We track 83 large, mostly long-only managers whose 13F portfolios we collect directly from SEC EDGAR. As of June 30, 2026, 3 held Lowe's long, totalling 838,492 shares worth $184,879,097, with no option rows. The largest holder is Thomas Gayner's Markel Group, with 751,980 shares worth $165,804,070, a 1.26% portfolio weight — 89.7% of the cohort's shares. The other two combined hold 86,512 shares: David Katz's Matrix Asset Advisors holds 79,680 shares worth $17,568,639, and Mairs & Power Funds holds 6,832 shares worth $1,506,388. The labels read two increased and one decreased: Markel rose 1.8%, Matrix rose 22.5%, and Mairs & Power trimmed 0.3%. On the pipeline's holdings files, on the same CUSIP basis, the same three held 810,399 shares at March 31, so the quarter added 28,093 shares (+3.47%) while the price fell 6.7%. No tracked manager exited. The implied price, $220.49, sits exactly on the June 30 close. 13F figures are as of June 30, 2026; funds have up to 45 days to file, so this picture is complete — and always lagging.

Lowe's through six filing lenses
Chart 1: Signal presence by cohort. Superinvestors: 83 managers, 2026Q2 13F (as of Jun 30, 2026). Institutions: full-market 13F aggregation, same date. Insiders: Form 4 through Oct 2, 2026. Congress: PTR records through Oct 3, 2026. 13D/G: parsed filings through May 6, 2026. Short interest: FINRA settlements through Sep 15, 2026. Source: SEC EDGAR; FINRA; GetCoattail collections.

Lens 2 — institutions: six fewer filers, 61.2 million more shares. At June 30, 2026, 2,655 institutions reported positions, down 6 from 2,661 at March 31 (-0.23%), 2,645 of them long. Reported shares rose 16.17%, from 378,380,190 to 439,580,996 shares — up 61,200,806 shares in the quarter the price fell 6.7%. Reported value rose 9.69% to $95,964,470,936; the aggregate includes option rows, so we headline filer and share counts and label dollars "reported" (see methodology).

Lens 3 — insiders: one purchase in the entire parsed record, and it was not an officer's. The parsed Form 4 record holds 119 filings through October 2, 2026. Purchases total 1 transaction — 1,000 shares for $231,062.70, by one buyer — and officer purchases total zero in every window. Sales total 19 transactions totalling 149,970 shares and $38,721,139.15, by seven sellers, all 19 of them officer sales. The last year holds 56 filings with that same purchase alongside seven sales — 54,349 shares for $13,168,373.54, by five sellers, all officer sales — and the last 90 days hold 14 filings with no purchase and no sale at all. We assign no motives.

Lens 4 — Congress: three recorded sales, no purchases, both chambers. The combined record (as of October 3, 2026) records three sale transactions and no purchase. The House aggregate (October 3, 2026) holds two sales and the Senate aggregate (October 1, 2026) holds one. The aggregates' member and party fields print empty, so this audit reports the counts only.

Lens 5 — the 5% register: five filings, all passive, topped at 10.02%. Our full parse holds exactly 5 SC 13D/G filings — three SC 13G and two SC 13G/A, and no SC 13D filing of any kind — 6 reporting-person rows across 5 names as filed, most recently filed May 6, 2026, matching the site aggregate on every headline field. The register's maximum is The Vanguard Group at 56,226,069 shares (10.02%) as of December 31, 2025. The Vanguard Group then prints 0 shares (0.0%) as of March 13, 2026, while Vanguard Capital Management prints a separate row of 42,022,528 shares (7.5%) as of March 31, 2026; we report them as filed and do not merge them. The remaining prints are JPMorgan Chase & Co. at 30,964,308 shares (5.5%) as of June 30, 2025, and the May 6, 2026 filing in which FMR LLC and Abigail P. Johnson each report 31,780,950.85 shares (5.7%).

Lens 6 — short interest: 9,399,130 shares, 43.7% below its 2022 peak. As of September 15, 2026 — the most recent of 137 FINRA settlements since January 15, 2021 — 9,399,130 shares were sold short, up 2.42% from the prior settlement's 9,176,642 shares on August 31, 2026. The series maximum is 16,689,831 shares on August 31, 2022 — verified by a maximum query over the whole series — so the latest sits 43.7% below that peak. The last five settlements read 11,089,170, 11,301,000, 9,172,213, 9,176,642 and 9,399,130: a step down in August, then two small upticks. Against the year-ago 9,475,136 shares the latest is down 0.8%; against the June 30, 2026 settlement of 10,033,932 it is down 6.3%. Against 561,054,019 shares outstanding, it is 1.68% of the share count, at 3.17 days to cover.

Short interest in Lowe's
Chart 2: Shares sold short in Lowe's at each FINRA biweekly settlement, Jan 15, 2021 – Sep 15, 2026 (n = 137 settlements). The latest reading, 9,399,130 shares on Sep 15, 2026, is down 43.7% from the series maximum of 16,689,831 shares on Aug 31, 2022, up 2.42% from the prior settlement, and 0.8% below the year-ago settlement. Source: FINRA Equity Short Interest files; GetCoattail collection (low_short_interest_series.csv).

The Gap

The narrative describes a retailer that beat the earnings estimate — $4.40 adjusted against $4.22 expected, sales up 8.3% — while cutting its outlook to the low end, carrying a $255.97 consensus target against a $180.80 close on October 2 that was the lowest close in 252 sessions. The filings describe accumulation underneath a falling price and near-silence at the top. The full market held 439,580,996 reported shares at June 30, up 61,200,806 shares (+16.17%), even as its filer count slipped by six to 2,655. The tracked cohort moved the same way, in miniature: 810,399 shares at March 31 became 838,492 at June 30, up 28,093 shares, with both larger holders raising — but 89.7% of that position sits in Markel alone, so the cohort's direction is effectively one holder's direction. The 5% register printed five filings, all passive, none since May. Insiders recorded exactly one purchase in 119 filings — not by an officer — against 19 sales, all by officers. Congress records three sales and no purchases. And the borrow stands at 9,399,130 shares — 43.7% below its August 2022 peak, 6.3% below the June 30, 2026 settlement, 1.68% of the shares outstanding. One plausible reading is that the second-quarter decline was absorbed by the broad register while the tracked cohort barely participated and insiders, on the purchase side, essentially did not participate at all. The record supports each clause separately; it does not say which register is early.

What Would Change the Picture

Nothing above is a recommendation. It is a record. These are the filings that would change the description:

Until one of those prints, the record describes a stock held by three of our 83 tracked superinvestors — 838,492 shares, 89.7% in one holder that raised 1.8% in the quarter its price fell 6.7% — whose insiders have recorded one purchase and no officer purchase, whose 5% register has printed nothing since May, and whose borrow stands at 1.68% of the shares outstanding.

As-of & Limits

The lenses rest on different clocks, none live: 13F is a June 30, 2026 snapshot published up to 45 days later; Form 4 runs through October 2, 2026; Congress through October 3, 2026 (Senate October 1); 13D/G through the May 6, 2026 filing; short interest through September 15, 2026; prices end October 2, 2026. Three limits are specific to this name: the site's 90-day insider aggregate carries no row, so Lens 3 rests on the full parse; the congressional aggregates print empty member and party fields, so Lens 4 reports counts only; and the full-market value implies $218.31 against the $220.49 close, so this audit headlines filer and share counts. The November 18 call postdates every filing lens here.

Related reading: Fifteen of 83: One Holder Is 93.2% of the Superinvestors' Bank of America Stake. Its Insiders Have Never Bought a Share. — Filing Tape #69; Eight of 83: The Superinvestors Cut Citigroup 15.0% While the Price Rose 23.4%. Its Insiders Have Never Bought a Share. — Filing Tape #68; One of 83: The Only Superinvestor in PPL Is Brand New. Its Insiders Have Never Bought a Share. — Filing Tape #67. Lowe's own page: Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW) on GetCoattail.

Methodology and data notes

Past patterns are not a promise of future results. For education only — not investment advice.

This article describes public filings as of the dates stated. It is not investment advice and makes no recommendation. Filings lag reality: 13F positions are as of June 30, 2026, and later trading is not yet public.

Revision history

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