GetCoattail Research — The Filing Tape #70. Lowe's closed at its 252-session low on October 2, down 25.0% for the year. The filings describe a thin register at the top: three tracked superinvestors holding 838,492 shares, 89.7% of them in one name that raised its position in the second quarter, a broad market that added 61.2 million shares underneath, an insider record with one purchase in 119 filings, and a borrow 43.7% below its 2022 peak.
The Hype
Lowe's is the second name on MarketBeat's home-improvement watch list for October 13, behind Home Depot, under a headline noting both retailers have hit 52-week lows while analysts have not given up on them. The split showed up in the last print. For the fiscal second quarter ended July 31, 2026, reported August 19, Lowe's posted sales of $26.0 billion, up 8.3% from a year earlier, with diluted earnings of $4.27 per share and adjusted earnings of $4.40, ahead of the $4.22 consensus. Comparable sales rose just 0.2% — online sales grew 15.7% while discretionary DIY demand stayed pressured — and management moved the full-year outlook to the low end of its prior ranges. Analysts entered October leaning positive on average but cutting at the edges: MarketBeat's October 6 consensus was a moderate buy from 36 analysts with an average target of $255.97, while Evercore ISI cut its target from $220 to $190 on October 6 and Gordon Haskett cut from $240 to $200 in September. On our daily-close file the stock fell 6.7% in the second quarter, from $236.28 at March 31 to $220.49 at June 30, then slid to $180.80 by October 2 — the lowest close of the last 252 sessions, down 37.1% from the $287.39 closing high of February 13, 2026, and down 25.0% year to date. The next print is the November 18 third-quarter call. The question the filings answer is who was holding the stock while it fell.
The Tape
For Lowe's — the seventieth Filing Tape audit — the tape shows a three-name cohort dominated by one holder, a full market adding shares as its filer count slipped, an insider record with a single purchase, three congressional sales, a passive 5% register topped at 10.02%, and a borrow well below its peak.
| Lens | As of | What the filings show | Direction vs prior period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Superinvestors (13F) | Jun 30, 2026 | 3 long holders; 838,492 shares; $184,879,097 | Shares +3.47% vs Q1; 2 raised, 1 cut |
| All institutions (13F) | Jun 30, 2026 | 2,655 filers; 439,580,996 shares | Filers -6; shares +16.17% |
| Insiders (Form 4) | Oct 2, 2026 | 1 purchase in the entire parsed record; 19 sales | Last 90 days: 0 purchases, 0 sales |
| Congress | Oct 3, 2026 | 3 recorded sale transactions; 0 purchases | House 2 sales; Senate 1 sale |
| 13D/G | May 6, 2026 | 5 parsed filings, all SC 13G; register maximum 10.02% (The Vanguard Group) | Vanguard chain prints a zero row; no filing since May 2026 |
| Short interest (FINRA) | Sep 15, 2026 | 9,399,130 shares; 1.68% of shares outstanding | -43.7% vs series peak; -0.8% vs a year ago |
Lens 1 — the superinvestors: three holders, one of them 89.7% of the position. We track 83 large, mostly long-only managers whose 13F portfolios we collect directly from SEC EDGAR. As of June 30, 2026, 3 held Lowe's long, totalling 838,492 shares worth $184,879,097, with no option rows. The largest holder is Thomas Gayner's Markel Group, with 751,980 shares worth $165,804,070, a 1.26% portfolio weight — 89.7% of the cohort's shares. The other two combined hold 86,512 shares: David Katz's Matrix Asset Advisors holds 79,680 shares worth $17,568,639, and Mairs & Power Funds holds 6,832 shares worth $1,506,388. The labels read two increased and one decreased: Markel rose 1.8%, Matrix rose 22.5%, and Mairs & Power trimmed 0.3%. On the pipeline's holdings files, on the same CUSIP basis, the same three held 810,399 shares at March 31, so the quarter added 28,093 shares (+3.47%) while the price fell 6.7%. No tracked manager exited. The implied price, $220.49, sits exactly on the June 30 close. 13F figures are as of June 30, 2026; funds have up to 45 days to file, so this picture is complete — and always lagging.
Lens 2 — institutions: six fewer filers, 61.2 million more shares. At June 30, 2026, 2,655 institutions reported positions, down 6 from 2,661 at March 31 (-0.23%), 2,645 of them long. Reported shares rose 16.17%, from 378,380,190 to 439,580,996 shares — up 61,200,806 shares in the quarter the price fell 6.7%. Reported value rose 9.69% to $95,964,470,936; the aggregate includes option rows, so we headline filer and share counts and label dollars "reported" (see methodology).
Lens 3 — insiders: one purchase in the entire parsed record, and it was not an officer's. The parsed Form 4 record holds 119 filings through October 2, 2026. Purchases total 1 transaction — 1,000 shares for $231,062.70, by one buyer — and officer purchases total zero in every window. Sales total 19 transactions totalling 149,970 shares and $38,721,139.15, by seven sellers, all 19 of them officer sales. The last year holds 56 filings with that same purchase alongside seven sales — 54,349 shares for $13,168,373.54, by five sellers, all officer sales — and the last 90 days hold 14 filings with no purchase and no sale at all. We assign no motives.
Lens 4 — Congress: three recorded sales, no purchases, both chambers. The combined record (as of October 3, 2026) records three sale transactions and no purchase. The House aggregate (October 3, 2026) holds two sales and the Senate aggregate (October 1, 2026) holds one. The aggregates' member and party fields print empty, so this audit reports the counts only.
Lens 5 — the 5% register: five filings, all passive, topped at 10.02%. Our full parse holds exactly 5 SC 13D/G filings — three SC 13G and two SC 13G/A, and no SC 13D filing of any kind — 6 reporting-person rows across 5 names as filed, most recently filed May 6, 2026, matching the site aggregate on every headline field. The register's maximum is The Vanguard Group at 56,226,069 shares (10.02%) as of December 31, 2025. The Vanguard Group then prints 0 shares (0.0%) as of March 13, 2026, while Vanguard Capital Management prints a separate row of 42,022,528 shares (7.5%) as of March 31, 2026; we report them as filed and do not merge them. The remaining prints are JPMorgan Chase & Co. at 30,964,308 shares (5.5%) as of June 30, 2025, and the May 6, 2026 filing in which FMR LLC and Abigail P. Johnson each report 31,780,950.85 shares (5.7%).
Lens 6 — short interest: 9,399,130 shares, 43.7% below its 2022 peak. As of September 15, 2026 — the most recent of 137 FINRA settlements since January 15, 2021 — 9,399,130 shares were sold short, up 2.42% from the prior settlement's 9,176,642 shares on August 31, 2026. The series maximum is 16,689,831 shares on August 31, 2022 — verified by a maximum query over the whole series — so the latest sits 43.7% below that peak. The last five settlements read 11,089,170, 11,301,000, 9,172,213, 9,176,642 and 9,399,130: a step down in August, then two small upticks. Against the year-ago 9,475,136 shares the latest is down 0.8%; against the June 30, 2026 settlement of 10,033,932 it is down 6.3%. Against 561,054,019 shares outstanding, it is 1.68% of the share count, at 3.17 days to cover.
The Gap
The narrative describes a retailer that beat the earnings estimate — $4.40 adjusted against $4.22 expected, sales up 8.3% — while cutting its outlook to the low end, carrying a $255.97 consensus target against a $180.80 close on October 2 that was the lowest close in 252 sessions. The filings describe accumulation underneath a falling price and near-silence at the top. The full market held 439,580,996 reported shares at June 30, up 61,200,806 shares (+16.17%), even as its filer count slipped by six to 2,655. The tracked cohort moved the same way, in miniature: 810,399 shares at March 31 became 838,492 at June 30, up 28,093 shares, with both larger holders raising — but 89.7% of that position sits in Markel alone, so the cohort's direction is effectively one holder's direction. The 5% register printed five filings, all passive, none since May. Insiders recorded exactly one purchase in 119 filings — not by an officer — against 19 sales, all by officers. Congress records three sales and no purchases. And the borrow stands at 9,399,130 shares — 43.7% below its August 2022 peak, 6.3% below the June 30, 2026 settlement, 1.68% of the shares outstanding. One plausible reading is that the second-quarter decline was absorbed by the broad register while the tracked cohort barely participated and insiders, on the purchase side, essentially did not participate at all. The record supports each clause separately; it does not say which register is early.
What Would Change the Picture
Nothing above is a recommendation. It is a record. These are the filings that would change the description:
- 1. The 2026Q3 13Fs (filing window closing mid-November 2026). The cohort held 838,492 shares at June 30, after adding 3.47% in a falling quarter, and Markel alone held 751,980 of them after raising 1.8%. Whether Markel adds, holds or cuts is the first thing the next register answers — with three holders, one exit changes the count by a third.
- 2. A second insider purchase — or a first officer purchase. The record holds one purchase across 119 filings through October 2, 2026, and zero officer purchases in any window, against 19 sales. One officer purchase breaks the pattern.
- 3. A new 5% filing, at any size. The register's latest filing is dated May 6, 2026. A fresh Vanguard row, a second FMR print — or a first SC 13D — restarts this lens.
- 4. Whether the borrow keeps easing, or rebuilds. Short interest stands at 9,399,130 shares, 43.7% below the peak of 16,689,831 and 6.3% below the June 30, 2026 settlement of 10,033,932. A reading above that June settlement reverses the easing; one below the August 14 reading of 9,172,213 extends it.
- 5. A first congressional purchase, in either chamber. The combined record holds three sales and no purchases — two House, one Senate. One recorded purchase gives this lens a new entry.
Until one of those prints, the record describes a stock held by three of our 83 tracked superinvestors — 838,492 shares, 89.7% in one holder that raised 1.8% in the quarter its price fell 6.7% — whose insiders have recorded one purchase and no officer purchase, whose 5% register has printed nothing since May, and whose borrow stands at 1.68% of the shares outstanding.
As-of & Limits
The lenses rest on different clocks, none live: 13F is a June 30, 2026 snapshot published up to 45 days later; Form 4 runs through October 2, 2026; Congress through October 3, 2026 (Senate October 1); 13D/G through the May 6, 2026 filing; short interest through September 15, 2026; prices end October 2, 2026. Three limits are specific to this name: the site's 90-day insider aggregate carries no row, so Lens 3 rests on the full parse; the congressional aggregates print empty member and party fields, so Lens 4 reports counts only; and the full-market value implies $218.31 against the $220.49 close, so this audit headlines filer and share counts. The November 18 call postdates every filing lens here.
Related reading: Fifteen of 83: One Holder Is 93.2% of the Superinvestors' Bank of America Stake. Its Insiders Have Never Bought a Share. — Filing Tape #69; Eight of 83: The Superinvestors Cut Citigroup 15.0% While the Price Rose 23.4%. Its Insiders Have Never Bought a Share. — Filing Tape #68; One of 83: The Only Superinvestor in PPL Is Brand New. Its Insiders Have Never Bought a Share. — Filing Tape #67. Lowe's own page: Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW) on GetCoattail.
Methodology and data notes
- Superinvestor lens: 83 managers collected directly from SEC EDGAR Form 13F (managers_13f collection), positions as of June 30, 2026; Lowe's identified by CUSIP 548661107. Three distinct managers hold a long position totalling 838,492 shares; there are no option rows for this name in the collection. The direction count on the collection's labels, across the long rows, is two INCREASED (David Katz - Matrix Asset Advisors, +22.5%; Thomas Gayner - Markel Group, +1.8%) and one DECREASED (Mairs & Power Funds, -0.3%); the collection's exit list contains no Lowe's row. Quarter-to-quarter cohort totals (810,399 long shares at March 31; 838,492 long shares at June 30, a change of +28,093 shares or +3.47%) are from the site pipeline's holdings files on the same CUSIP basis in both quarters, and the pipeline's second-quarter totals match the EDGAR collection exactly on both shares and value (differences of 0 shares and $0). Markel Group's share of the cohort is 89.7% = 751,980 / 838,492.
- Full-market lens: SEC Form 13F Data Sets full-market aggregation. The primary table is the full13f collection's by-ticker file (holders = distinct filers reporting the CUSIP; 2,645 reported long positions out of 2,655 filers). Lowe's reports under a single CUSIP, 548661107, and the backfill fixtures' by-CUSIP row matches the by-ticker row exactly on holders, shares, reported value, prior holders and prior value. The by-ticker file's entered/exited fields (1,808 and 1,814, a net of -6 that matches the change in holder count) are gross flows, so this audit headlines the net change. Reported-value caution: the aggregate value ($95,964,470,936 over 439,580,996 shares) implies $218.31 per share against a June 30, 2026 close of $220.49 in our price file, a gap of -1.0% — printed here as found. The aggregate sums the VALUE of every information-table row — including put and call option rows — while the share count covers long common-stock rows only, so we headline filer and share counts and label dollar values "reported."
- Insider lens: full-parse Form 4 aggregation (agg_by_ticker), record as of October 2, 2026 (119 filings). Sale and purchase counts are transaction-code counts (S and P) in non-derivative rows; grants and exercises are not counted as purchases, and one filing can contain many transaction rows. Purchase transactions total 1 across the parsed record (1,000 shares, $231,062.70, one buyer) and officer purchase transactions total 0 in the 90-day window, the last year and the full record alike (officerBuyTx 0 and officerBuyValUsd $0 in each); the single purchase falls in the last-year window, so the one-year and full-record purchase figures describe the same transaction. Sale transactions total 19 across the record (149,970 shares, $38,721,139.15, seven sellers, all 19 recorded as officer sales); the last year holds seven (54,349 shares, $13,168,373.54, five sellers, all officer sales) alongside the single purchase, and the 90-day window holds 0 sales and no purchases across 14 filings. The site's insider aggregate (compiled as of October 14, 2026, 90-day window) carries no Lowe's row at all, so there is no site figure to reconcile against the full parse for this name; this audit prints the full parse as the record. No field of the full-parse aggregate had to be excluded: its purchase total implies $231.06 per share and its sale-value totals imply $242.29 per share for the one-year window and $258.19 across the full record, each inside the traded price range of its window on our price file ($180.80 to $287.39 for the one-year window's dates, and $171.61 to $287.39 across the price file), so all value totals are cited as figures in this article.
- 13D/G lens: full-parse SC 13D/G parsed filings (5 filings matching issuer CIK 60667 on CUSIP 548661107, 6 reporting-person rows across 5 names as filed: three SC 13G filings and two SC 13G/A amendments, no SC 13D filing), filings through May 6, 2026. The site aggregation's by-ticker row for Lowe's (5 filings, 0 D-filings, 5 G-filings, 2 amendments, 5 reporters, latest date May 6, 2026, maximum 10.02% and 192,774,806.7 reported shares) matches the parsed filings on filings, form mix, amendments, latest date, maximum and reported-share total; its reporter count of 5 is the count of distinct reporter names, while the parsed filings hold 6 reporting-person rows because the May 6, 2026 filing carries two rows (FMR LLC and Abigail P. Johnson, each reporting the same 31,780,950.85 shares at 5.7%). The parsed reporting-person rows sum to 192,774,806.7 shares, but that total sums reporting-person rows across different dates — including the two rows inside the FMR filing that describe the same underlying position — so it is not used as a stake figure in the article. The Vanguard Group's row (56,226,069 shares at 10.02% as of December 31, 2025, filed January 7, 2026, SC 13G/A — the register maximum), The Vanguard Group's second row (0 shares at 0.0% as of March 13, 2026, filed March 27, 2026, SC 13G/A), Vanguard Capital Management's row (42,022,528 shares at 7.5% as of March 31, 2026, filed April 30, 2026, SC 13G), JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s row (30,964,308 shares at 5.5% as of June 30, 2025, filed July 30, 2025, SC 13G) and the FMR LLC / Abigail P. Johnson rows (31,780,950.85 shares each at 5.7% as of March 31, 2026, filed May 6, 2026, SC 13G) are reported as filed, under the names exactly as they appear. The two Vanguard-named rows are separate reporting persons as filed and are not merged in this audit. The parsed coverage for this issuer holds these 5 filings; a 5% holder that has not filed in the covered window would not appear here.
- Congress lens: Senate PTR archive and House PTR archive as maintained on this site. The combined record (as of October 3, 2026) records three sale transactions and no purchase for this ticker; the House aggregate (as of October 3, 2026) records two sales and the Senate aggregate (as of October 1, 2026) records one sale, and the two chambers sum to the combined count. All three rows print a member count of 0 and an empty party list, so this audit reports the transaction counts only and does not reconstruct individual filers beyond what the aggregates state.
- Short interest lens: FINRA Equity Short Interest files (biweekly settlement dates), collected directly from FINRA's public distribution. The published series covers 137 settlements from January 15, 2021 (9,093,957 shares) to September 15, 2026. The latest reading is 9,399,130 shares on September 15, 2026, up 2.42% from the prior settlement (9,176,642 on August 31, 2026), which had held near flat from 9,172,213 on August 14, 2026, following 11,301,000 on July 31 and 11,089,170 on July 15 — the last five settlements step down in August and tick up twice rather than trending in a straight line. The series maximum is 16,689,831 shares on August 31, 2022 (verified by a maximum query over the series, not read off the latest row), so the latest reading sits 43.7% below the peak. The year-ago settlement (September 15, 2025) printed 9,475,136 shares, so the latest reading sits 0.8% below a year ago. The series minimum is 5,568,934 shares on November 15, 2024. The June 30, 2026 settlement printed 10,033,932 shares, so the latest reading sits 6.3% below the 13F snapshot date's borrow. FINRA publishes each settlement about two weeks after the fact, so the October price action is not yet in this series. The share-count ratio (1.68%) uses the fundamentals file's shares-outstanding figure below.
- Fundamentals note: our fundamentals collection carries Lowe's revenue of $86,286,000,000, net income of $6,654,000,000 and assets of $54,144,000,000, each labelled fiscal 2026 in the file (the company's fiscal year ends January 31). The file is marked ok for this name, with no missing fields: shares outstanding of 561,054,019 (as of August 25, 2026 in the file, sourced in the file to a dei share count) and a file-computed market value of $103,048,790,642.41. The file's price for the name is $183.67 as of October 6, 2026; our daily-close file ends October 2, 2026 at $180.80, and we keep the two files' figures separate rather than blending them.
- Prices: our own daily-close file for Lowe's through October 2, 2026 ($180.80 close, -25.0% year to date on that file; 252-session closing high $287.39 on February 13, 2026, so the last close sits 37.1% below it; 252-session closing low $180.80 on October 2, 2026 — the last close is itself the 252-session low; closes of $236.28 at March 31, 2026 and $220.49 at June 30, 2026, a second-quarter change of -6.7%; change from June 30 to October 2 of -18.0%; change from the 252-session low of +0.0%; change from the September 30, 2025 close of $251.31 of -28.1%). The series in our price file begins June 1, 2021 at $191.85 and holds 1,342 rows.
- Market context sources: MarketBeat home-improvement stocks list for October 13, 2026 (Lowe's ranked second, behind Home Depot, among Home Depot, Lowe's, Masco, BED BATH & BEYOND and Medallion Financial, under a headline noting both leaders had hit 52-week lows; checked October 14, 2026); fiscal second-quarter 2026 results for the quarter ended July 31, 2026, reported August 19, 2026 (sales of $26.0 billion, up 8.3% year over year; diluted EPS of $4.27; adjusted diluted EPS of $4.40 against a $4.22 consensus; comparable sales up 0.2%; online sales up 15.7%; net earnings of $2.4 billion; full-year outlook moved to the low end of prior ranges, with sales of about $92 billion), as carried in the company's PR Newswire release via Morningstar and cross-checked against Zacks' August 19, 2026 report, checked October 14, 2026; the MarketBeat consensus (moderate buy from 36 analysts, average target $255.97, as of October 6, 2026) and the recent target actions it summarises (Evercore ISI $220 to $190 on October 6, 2026; Gordon Haskett $240 to $200 with a move to hold on September 24, 2026; Mizuho $280 to $250 on August 20, 2026), as carried by MarketBeat-derived reports in October 2026, checked October 14, 2026; the third-quarter earnings call scheduled for November 18, 2026, as listed on the company's investor calendar and carried in October 2026 reports, checked October 14, 2026. Figures we could not confirm against two sources were left out; the external items above are reported speech from those outlets, not GetCoattail measurements.
- Lowe's is in the GetCoattail stock-page universe: Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW) stock page. Series data: low_lens_data.csv · low_short_interest_series.csv. Earlier audits: Home Depot · Bank of America.
Past patterns are not a promise of future results. For education only — not investment advice.
This article describes public filings as of the dates stated. It is not investment advice and makes no recommendation. Filings lag reality: 13F positions are as of June 30, 2026, and later trading is not yet public.
Revision history
- v1.0 — October 14, 2026: first publication.