GetCoattail Research — The Filing Tape #74. Nebius is the AI cloud name the market repriced in a single quarter, and the filings describe a register with exactly one tracked superinvestor — new, at a 7.19% weight — a full market that added 341 filers, an insider record with no purchase in it, and a borrow that peaked in July at more than a fifth of the share count.
The Hype
Nebius Group is nineteenth on MarketBeat's trending-stocks list, and the attention is not new: this is the quarter the stock repriced. On our daily-close file it rose from $103.76 at March 31, 2026 to $276.17 at June 30 — up 166.2% — and it last closed at $252.90 on October 6, up 202.1% this year and 11.8% below its June 18 closing high of $286.69. The business behind the move, as reported from the company's second-quarter results on August 11, is an AI cloud: revenue of $582.3 million, up 454% year over year, AI cloud revenue of $575 million up 514%, a run rate that moved from $1.9 billion to $3 billion inside 90 days, and $5.66 billion of capital spending in the quarter. Its contract book has been reported at $17.4 billion from Microsoft — up to $19.4 billion with options — and a five-year, $27 billion capacity deal with Meta. Rosenblatt initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $304 target on October 8, and MarketBeat's consensus is a moderate buy at $245.69. On October 12 the shares fell about 5% to close at $210.06, in coverage pairing AI valuation concerns with reports of insider selling, and they fell again in October 13 coverage. The filings answer who held the stock through the repricing quarter.
The Tape
For Nebius — the seventy-fourth Filing Tape audit — the tape shows a one-name tracked cohort that did not exist the quarter before, a full market adding 341 filers and 37.6 million shares, an insider record with no purchase in it, no recorded congressional trade at all, a passive-only 5% register whose largest print stepped up in July, and a borrow that set its record in July and remains 18.49% of the share count.
| Lens | As of | What the filings show | Direction vs prior period |
|---|---|---|---|
| Superinvestors (13F) | Jun 30, 2026 | 1 long holder; 4,258,008 shares; $1,175,934,069 | No holder in Q1; the one holder is new |
| All institutions (13F) | Jun 30, 2026 | 1,071 filers; 155,368,623 shares | Filers +341; shares +31.93% |
| Insiders (Form 4) | Oct 2, 2026 | 0 purchases in the entire parsed record; 90 sales | Last 90 days: 0 purchases, 57 sales |
| Congress | Oct 3, 2026 | No recorded trade in any aggregate | House, Senate and combined records all carry no entry |
| 13D/G | Aug 7, 2026 | 8 parsed filings (0 SC 13D-family, 8 SC 13G-family); register maximum 10.5% (Goldman Sachs group) | Latest prints stepped the largest holder up from 7.2% to 10.5% |
| Short interest (FINRA) | Sep 15, 2026 | 46,779,540 shares; 18.49% of shares outstanding | Series record set Jul 15, 2026; latest -23.4% below it |
Lens 1 — the superinvestors: one holder, and it is new. We track 83 large, mostly long-only managers whose 13F portfolios we collect directly from SEC EDGAR. As of June 30, 2026, 1 held Nebius long: Stephen Mandel's Lone Pine Capital, with 4,258,008 shares worth $1,175,934,069, a 7.19% portfolio weight, labelled new — and there are no option rows. On the pipeline's holdings files, the cohort held no shares at all in this CUSIP at March 31 — zero rows — and 4,258,008 at June 30, so the entire position arrived in the quarter the price rose 166.2%; with no prior-quarter holding, no percentage change is defined. No tracked manager exited this name in the quarter, because none held it. Lone Pine is therefore 100.0% of the cohort's position. The implied price, $276.17, sits exactly on the June 30 close. 13F figures are as of June 30, 2026; funds have up to 45 days to file, so this picture is complete — and always lagging.
Lens 2 — institutions: 341 more filers, 37.6 million more shares. At June 30, 2026, 1,071 institutions reported positions, up 341 from 730 at March 31 (+46.71%), 1,051 of them long. Reported shares rose 31.93%, from 117,769,094 to 155,368,623 shares — up 37,599,529 shares in the quarter the price rose 166.2%. Reported value rose 287.68% to $64,569,930,114; the aggregate includes option rows, so we headline filer and share counts and label dollars "reported" (see methodology).
Lens 3 — insiders: no purchase in the record at all. The parsed Form 4 record holds 39 filings through October 2, 2026, all of them inside the last year. Purchases total zero transactions — in the 90-day window, the last year and the full parsed record alike — with zero buyers in every window, and officer purchases are likewise zero in every window. Sales total 90 transactions totalling 1,410,017 shares and $283,010,193.13, by 9 sellers, 23 of them recorded as officer sales. The last 90 days hold 21 filings with no purchases and 57 sales (206,271 shares for $48,936,872.70), 8 of them officer sales. We assign no motives.
Lens 4 — Congress: no recorded trade. The combined congressional record (as of October 3, 2026), the House aggregate (October 3, 2026) and the Senate aggregate (October 1, 2026) each carry no entry at all for this ticker. This audit reports that as no recorded trade in the aggregates we maintain; it does not reconstruct individual filers.
Lens 5 — the 5% register: eight filings, all passive, and the largest stepped up. Our full parse holds exactly 8 SC 13D/G filings — three SC 13G and five SC 13G/A, with five amendments and no SC 13D-family filing at all — 19 reporting-person rows across 11 names as filed, most recently filed August 7, 2026, matching the site aggregate's CUSIP-keyed row on every headline field. The register's maximum is THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC. and GOLDMAN SACHS & CO. LLC jointly reporting 23,111,112.59 shares (10.5%) as of July 31, 2026 — the same block reported by two related entities, counted once here — up from 15,896,355.61 shares (7.2%) as of June 30, 2026 in a filing made the same day. Six Situational Awareness entities jointly report 12,410,060 shares (5.6%) as of May 19, 2026, again one block counted once. Orbis Investment Management's chain runs the other way: 15,703,919 shares (7.9%) as of December 31, 2024, then 6.7%, 8.7% and 5.9%, and 3,335,358 shares (1.5%) as of December 31, 2025.
Lens 6 — short interest: 46,779,540 shares, against a record set in July. As of September 15, 2026 — the most recent of 50 FINRA settlements since August 30, 2024 — 46,779,540 shares were sold short, up 3.33% from the prior settlement. The series maximum, 61,068,467 shares on July 15, 2026 — verified by a maximum query over the whole series — was set two months ago, and the latest reading sits 23.4% below it. The last five settlements read 61,068,467, 60,202,888, 55,355,915, 45,272,901 and 46,779,540: a record, three steps down, then a small rebuild. Against the year-ago 21,035,215 shares the latest is up 122.4%; against the June 30, 2026 settlement of 61,012,064 it is down 23.3%. Against 253,016,971 shares outstanding, it is 18.49% of the share count, at 3.60 days to cover.
The Gap
The narrative describes an AI cloud whose revenue grew 454% in a year and whose capacity is contracted to the industry's two largest buyers — and a stock that rose 166.2% in the second quarter and has since given back ground. The filings describe positioning that arrived late and argued both ways. The full market held 155,368,623 reported shares at June 30, up 37,599,529 shares (+31.93%), as its filer count rose by 341 to 1,071. The tracked cohort's entire presence is one decision: Lone Pine's new 4,258,008-share position, at a 7.19% weight, in a name no tracked manager held at March 31 — while 82 of the 83 tracked managers hold none of the stock at all. The 5% register holds no active filing: its largest prints are a bank group's jointly reported 10.5%, an AI-focused fund's jointly reported 5.6%, and a long-standing holder whose reported stake fell from 7.9% to 1.5% across 2025. Insiders recorded no purchase in 39 filings — not one, in any window — against 90 sales totalling $283,010,193.13. Congress records nothing at all. And the borrow, at 46,779,540 shares and 18.49% of the share count, set its record in July, after the repricing quarter closed. One plausible reading is that the register broadened into the rise while the borrow built against it, and the tracked cohort's only statement was a single new, large position. The record supports each clause separately; it does not say which side the next quarter favours.
What Would Change the Picture
Nothing above is a recommendation. It is a record. These filings would change the description:
- 1. The 2026Q3 13Fs (filing window closing mid-November 2026). The cohort held 4,258,008 shares at June 30 — one holder, new, at a 7.19% weight. Lone Pine adding, trimming or exiting, or a second tracked manager appearing, rewrites this lens either way.
- 2. A first insider purchase, ever, in the record. The record holds zero purchases across 39 filings through October 2, 2026, against 90 sales. One purchase breaks the pattern.
- 3. A first SC 13D, or a new print from the largest 13G holders. The Goldman Sachs group's 10.5% dates to July 31, 2026 and Situational Awareness's 5.6% to May 19, 2026. A step up or down by either, or the register's first active filing, restarts this lens.
- 4. Whether the borrow rebuilds toward its July record, or keeps fading. Short interest stands at 46,779,540 shares, 23.4% below the July 15, 2026 record of 61,068,467. A reading back above the August 14 print of 55,355,915 extends the rebuild; a reading below the August 31 print of 45,272,901 extends the fade.
- 5. A first recorded congressional trade of any kind. The combined, House and Senate aggregates all carry no entry for this ticker. One recorded purchase or sale gives this lens its first print.
Until one of those prints, the record describes a stock held by one of our 83 tracked superinvestors — 4,258,008 shares, new in the quarter it rose 166.2% — whose insiders have never recorded a purchase, whose 5% register is passive-only, and whose borrow peaked two months ago at more than a fifth of the share count.
As-of & Limits
The lenses rest on different clocks, none live: 13F is a June 30, 2026 snapshot published up to 45 days later; Form 4 runs through October 2, 2026; Congress through October 3, 2026 (Senate October 1); 13D/G through the August 7, 2026 filing; short interest through September 15, 2026; prices end October 6, 2026. Three limits are specific to this name: the parsed Form 4 record holds 39 filings, all inside the last year, so "the entire parsed record" and "the last year" are the same window here; the site's insider aggregate and the full Form 4 parse differ sharply in the 90-day window (see methodology), and this audit headlines the full parse; and the full-market implied price ($415.59) sits 50.5% above the June 30 close because its reported value sums option rows, so this audit headlines filer and share counts. The short-interest series begins in August 2024, before trading resumed that October, so its earliest prints are halt-period values. The October price action in the coverage above postdates most lenses here.
Related reading: Two of 83: Viking Opened a New Take-Two Position in Q2. Its Insiders Have Never Bought a Share. — Filing Tape #73; Four of 83: Every Superinvestor in Corning Cut in Q2 While the Full Market Added 103 Million Shares. Its Insiders Have Never Bought a Share. — Filing Tape #72; One of 83: The Only Superinvestor in McCormick Trimmed 1.6% in Q2. Short Interest Set a Series Record in August. — Filing Tape #71. Nebius's own page: Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) on GetCoattail.
Methodology and data notes
- Superinvestor lens: 83 managers collected directly from SEC EDGAR Form 13F (managers_13f collection), positions as of June 30, 2026; Nebius identified by CUSIP N97284108. One distinct manager holds a long position totalling 4,258,008 shares; there are no option rows for this name in the collection. The direction count on the collection's labels, across the long rows, is one NEW (Stephen Mandel - Lone Pine Capital); the collection's exit list contains no Nebius rows. Quarter-to-quarter cohort totals (0 long shares at March 31, in zero rows; 4,258,008 long shares at June 30, a new position for the whole cohort) are from the site pipeline's holdings files on the same CUSIP basis in both quarters, and the pipeline's second-quarter totals match the EDGAR collection exactly on both shares and value (differences of 0 shares and $0). Lone Pine's share of the cohort is 100.0% = 4,258,008 / 4,258,008.
- Full-market lens: SEC Form 13F Data Sets full-market aggregation. The primary table is the full13f collection's by-ticker file (holders = distinct filers reporting the CUSIP; 1,051 reported long positions out of 1,071 filers). Nebius reports under a single CUSIP, N97284108, and the backfill fixtures' by-CUSIP row matches the by-ticker row exactly on holders, shares, reported value, prior holders and prior value. The by-ticker file's entered/exited fields (992 and 651, a net of +341 that matches the change in holder count) are gross flows, so this audit headlines the net change. Reported-value caution: the aggregate value ($64,569,930,114 over 155,368,623 shares) implies $415.59 per share against a June 30, 2026 close of $276.17 in our price file, a gap of +50.5% — printed here as found. The aggregate sums the VALUE of every information-table row — including put and call option rows — while the share count covers long common-stock rows only, so we headline filer and share counts and label dollar values "reported."
- Insider lens: full-parse Form 4 aggregation (agg_by_ticker), record as of October 2, 2026 (39 filings). Sale and purchase counts are transaction-code counts (S and P) in non-derivative rows; grants and exercises are not counted as purchases, and one filing can contain many transaction rows. Purchase transactions total 0 across the parsed record (0 shares, $0, zero buyers) and officer purchase transactions total 0 in the 90-day window, the last year and the full record alike (officerBuyTx 0 and officerBuyValUsd $0 in each). Sale transactions total 90 across the record (1,410,017 shares, $283,010,193.13, 9 sellers, 23 of them recorded as officer sales); because all 39 parsed filings fall inside the last year, the one-year window prints the same totals, and the 90-day window holds no purchases and 57 sales (206,271 shares, $48,936,872.70), 8 of them officer sales. The site's insider aggregate (compiled as of October 14, 2026, 90-day window) agrees with the full parse on zero purchases, but prints 59 sales for $161,353,078.67 by 8 sellers — two transactions, $112,416,205.97 and one seller above the full parse's 90-day window; the two compilations are built on different schedules and different window starts, and this audit headlines the full parse throughout. No purchase-value field exists to check, because there are no purchases; the full-parse aggregate's sale-value totals imply $237.25 per share for the 90-day window and $200.71 for the one-year window and the full record, each inside the traded price range of its window on our price file ($148.22 to $277.68 for the 90-day window, $73.87 to $286.69 for the one-year window, and $17.16 to $286.69 across the price file), so all sale totals are cited as figures in this article.
- 13D/G lens: full-parse SC 13D/G parsed filings (8 filings matching issuer CIK 1513845 on CUSIP N97284108, 19 reporting-person rows across 11 names as filed: three SC 13G filings and five SC 13G/A amendments, with no SC 13D-family filing), filings through August 7, 2026. The site aggregation carries this name under a CUSIP-keyed row rather than a ticker-keyed row; that row (8 filings, 0 D-filings, 8 G-filings, 5 amendments, 11 reporters, latest date August 7, 2026, maximum 10.5% and 217,687,031.4 reported shares) matches the parsed filings on filings, form mix, amendments, latest date, maximum and reported-share total. The parsed reporting-person rows sum to 217,687,031.4 shares, but that total sums reporting-person rows across different dates — including the same 12,410,060-share block reported jointly by six Situational Awareness entities and the same Goldman Sachs blocks reported by two entities each — so it is not used as a stake figure in the article. THE GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP, INC.'s chain (with GOLDMAN SACHS & CO. LLC, each printing 15,896,355.61 shares at 7.2% as of June 30, 2026 and 23,111,112.59 shares at 10.5% as of July 31, 2026, both filed August 7, 2026), the joint Situational Awareness rows (Situational Awareness LP, SAF AI GP LP, Situational Awareness LLC, Situational Awareness Partners LP, Leopold Aschenbrenner and Carl Shulman, each printing 12,410,060 shares at 5.6% as of May 19, 2026, filed May 27, 2026, SC 13G) and the Orbis chain (ORBIS INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LTD / Orbis Investment Management Limited: 15,703,919 shares at 7.9% as of December 31, 2024; 15,680,459 at 6.7% as of March 31, 2025; 17,639,554 at 8.7% as of June 30, 2025; 12,788,453 at 5.9% as of September 30, 2025; 3,335,358 at 1.5% as of December 31, 2025, with a small Allan Gray Australia Pty Ltd row alongside the first four) are reported as filed, under the names exactly as they appear. The parsed coverage for this issuer holds these 8 filings; a 5% holder that has not filed in the covered window would not appear here.
- Congress lens: Senate PTR archive and House PTR archive as maintained on this site. The combined record (as of October 3, 2026), the House aggregate (as of October 3, 2026) and the Senate aggregate (as of October 1, 2026) each carry no row for this ticker. This audit therefore reports no recorded congressional trade in those aggregates; it does not reconstruct individual filers, and an absence in the aggregates is reported as an absence in the aggregates, not as proof about any individual filing.
- Short interest lens: FINRA Equity Short Interest files (biweekly settlement dates), collected directly from FINRA's public distribution. The published series covers 50 settlements from August 30, 2024 (3,522,099 shares) to September 15, 2026. The first settlements predate the resumption of trading in October 2024 and print zero average volume and 999.99 days to cover; they are included in the series count and the maximum query, and neither is the maximum or the minimum. The latest reading is 46,779,540 shares on September 15, 2026, up 3.33% from the prior settlement (45,272,901 on August 31, 2026). The series maximum is 61,068,467 shares on July 15, 2026 (verified by a maximum query over the series, not read off the latest row), so the latest reading sits 23.4% below a record set in 2026. The year-ago settlement (September 15, 2025) printed 21,035,215 shares, so the latest reading sits 122.4% above a year ago. The series minimum is 1,928,681 shares on November 29, 2024. The June 30, 2026 settlement printed 61,012,064 shares, so the latest reading sits 23.3% below the 13F snapshot date's borrow. FINRA publishes each settlement about two weeks after the fact, so the October price action is not yet in this series. The share-count ratio (18.49%) uses the fundamentals file's shares-outstanding figure below.
- Fundamentals note: our fundamentals collection carries Nebius's revenue of $529,800,000, net income of $82,500,000 and assets of $12,430,600,000, each labelled fiscal 2025 in the file. The file is marked ok for this name, with no missing fields: shares outstanding of 253,016,971 (as of December 31, 2025 in the file, sourced in the file to the share count) and a file-computed market value of $63,221,349,308.34. The file flags the issuer as a foreign private issuer. The file's price for the name is $249.87 as of October 6, 2026; our daily-close file ends October 6, 2026 at $252.90, and we keep the two files' figures separate rather than blending them.
- Prices: our own daily-close file for Nebius through October 6, 2026 ($252.90 close, +202.1% year to date on that file; 252-session closing high $286.69 on June 18, 2026, so the last close sits 11.8% below it; 252-session closing low $73.87 on February 5, 2026, so the last close sits 242.4% above it; closes of $103.76 at March 31, 2026 and $276.17 at June 30, 2026, a second-quarter change of +166.2%; change from June 30 to October 6 of -8.4%; change from the September 30, 2025 close of $112.27 of +125.3%). The series in our price file begins October 21, 2024 at $20.00 and holds 491 rows.
- Market context sources: Google Trends United States list via a trends mirror ("asml stock" the top search, 200+ searches; list checked October 14, 2026 — ASML was set aside for the reasons in the selection note in the data sheet); MarketBeat trending-stocks list (Nebius ranked nineteenth, $207.47, consensus moderate buy, average target $245.69; the names above it in that list already covered or skipped in this series; checked October 14, 2026); second-quarter 2026 results reported August 11, 2026 (revenue of $582.3 million, up 454% year over year; AI cloud revenue of $575 million, up 514%; annualised run rate from $1.9 billion to $3 billion in 90 days; capital spending of $5.66 billion in the quarter), as carried from the company's results by multiple outlets, checked October 14, 2026; a Microsoft agreement reported at $17.4 billion, up to $19.4 billion with options, and a five-year Meta capacity deal reported at $27 billion, as carried by multiple outlets, checked October 14, 2026; Rosenblatt Securities initiating coverage with a buy rating and a $304 target on October 8, 2026, as carried by MarketBeat reporting, checked October 14, 2026; shares falling about 5% on October 12, 2026 to close at $210.06 from $221.07, in coverage pairing AI valuation concerns with reported insider selling, and falling again in October 13 coverage, as carried by multiple outlets, checked October 14, 2026. Figures we could not confirm against two sources were left out; the external items above are reported speech from those outlets, not GetCoattail measurements.
- Nebius is in the GetCoattail stock-page universe: Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) stock page. Series data: nbis_lens_data.csv · nbis_short_interest_series.csv. Earlier audits: Take-Two · Corning.
Past patterns are not a promise of future results. For education only — not investment advice.
This article describes public filings as of the dates stated. It is not investment advice and makes no recommendation. Filings lag reality: 13F positions are as of June 30, 2026, and later trading is not yet public.
Revision history
- v1.0 — October 14, 2026: first publication.